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June 3, 3:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest outlook now to July 10.

Posted: Jun 3, 2019 2:45 PM
Updated: Jun 4, 2019 2:39 PM

Since early spring, it has looked like there would be two main periods of planting this spring:  late April to early May & late May to the first of June.  Then, it appeared hotter, drier weather would settle in for a while in June.

Fields that were planted in these bit drier periods show up well.  I saw some corn planted today in early May in Warren & Tippecanoe counties (on higher ground..........one on loam, one on sandy-loam) that actually looked really good.  I also saw corn that looked like it had been planted in late May. 

However, this is the minority & not the rule.  I saw a lot of fields covered in mustard & other tall weeds. 

It is a patch work of field work & planted fields & a few surprisingly highly-advanced fields of corn (planted very late April to early May). 

We have some relief today & into tomorrow to get some more planting & overall field work done.  The lack of widespread rainfall at the end of last week through the weekend with sunshine & strong winds (& low dew points yesterday & today) have done wonders.

So....................

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This has been a short Blackberry Winter.  It was basically confined to 1.5 days & now we are charging back into summer.

Surface warm front continues to push northeastward with widespread smoke coming in aloft around upper ridge northwest of our area.

With the smoky/hazy sunshine, some high clouds are increasing, with a few small cumulus clouds.

Temperatures vary from 70 in the northeast to 80 in the southwest.

Dew point are VERY low in places, resulting in very rapid dry out of soils.  They are mostly 37-46 over the area, but range (overall) from a bone-dry 37 in the northeast to 52 in the southwest.

Clouds will be on the increase tonight & will gradually dim & fade an already-hazy, pale sky.

A few sprinkles & spotty showers are possible tomorrow morning.  These looks insignificant with totals of only a trace to 0.01" in areas that even get ANY rainfall.  Coverage will run 25%.

These will occur with the warm front draped over the northeastern counties.

Lows will run from 56-64.

It looks completely dry with hazy sun & clouds/sun Tuesday afternoon.  With southerly winds, highs should reach 79-85 with a gradual increase in the humidity.

A round of showers & storms is likely Wednesday morning.  An isolated severe storms or two is possible.

A break should follow with sunshine, strong southwest winds & high humidity in the afternoon.  Highs should reach 82-86.

It appears that new storms may begin to fire on tail end or outflow boundary of morning storms by mid-afternoon.

Since storms will be so fast-moving Wednesday morning, rainfall totals will be held down.  Also, due to their pretty scattered nature of the heaviest cores, totals will vary considerably.

Some areas will only see trace-0.10", while other areas may get a quick 0.50-0.75".

There is not concrete agreement on how far to the northwest & west the storms will backbuild.  Storms that do develop could go severe Wednesday late afternoon to evening.

Three places of development are the outflow boundary & then the lake breeze front & then cold front.  However, it appears the most robust storm development may occur on the outflow boundary from the morning storms that may arc northwestward into our area from the Indianapolis area.

I am not convinced we will escape this period completely storm-free as some model data suggests.  They may not be widespread, but with the data in front of me, I think 40% coverage of storms for our viewing area seems good.

We will monitor.

Tropical depression, low pressure or a weak tropical storm is developing in the Bay of Campeche.

It does appear that this tropical system will track across the western Gulf of Mexico or right along the Texas coastline.  It will then tend to move northeastward toward our area.

Although a few spotty showers/storms may flirt with us as it pulls the cold front may northward as a warm front, it will really not have a substantial impact until next weekend.

This may hang on & stall some, bringing periods of wet weather next weekend to early next week in the form of bands of showers & some storms.

If ample sun can appear between these bands, muggy, warm, low-level sheared environment may support the risk of an isolated brief tornado or two.

1.5-4" of rainfall is possible today over a 4-day period.

We will continue to monitor for tweaks to this forecast.

June 13-25 looks drier & then warmer.  This looks like a window for any soybean planting or field work.

Wet pattern with multiple rounds of storms (some severe) will tend to develop with stalled front over area June 27-July 2.

We look to dry out some July 3-10.  Looks like ridging may eventually bring the hottest weather so far of 2019 in this stint with 90s & heat indices 104-111.  Overnight lows should run in the 70s.

Some typical summer hit-or-miss storms & a ridge rider or two are possible at times, but it doesn't look abnormally wet.

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