June 4, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the heat & eventual scattered storms.

Posted: Jun 4, 2021 1:53 PM
Updated: Jun 4, 2021 3:09 PM

Highs yesterday reached 80-88.  In the area of mid to upper 80s, sinking air warmed & dried out, leading to dew points to as low as 35!

As of 3 p.m., temperatures are 85-92 over the viewing area, but dew points are very low at 46-55, so it is a dry heat.

Note the extreme early-season heat in the Northern Plains & parts of the Corn Belt migrating eastward & east-southeastward over the next couple of days.

After lows tonight of 61-66, highs Saturday (with mostly sunny to sunny skies & southwest wind 10-20 mph) should reach 89-96 (94 Greater Lafayette). 

Dew points will be low in the 50-57 range much of the day, so it will be a dry heat.

As for Sunday, highs of 90-97 are likely (95 Greater Lafayette) with lots of sunshine, then increasing clouds south to north (cumulus towers).

Dew points Sunday should run 55-60, but the really muggy weather should overspread the viewing area after 6 p.m. Monday evening.  Dew points will climb to 70-75 & it will turn oppressive.

On the leading edge of these much higher dew points, a couple/few storms are possible.

A scattering of storms is expected Monday with southwest winds 10-20 mph, highs 87-92, heat indices 96-101 & an average of35% rainfall coverage (after morning lows near 70 to the lower 70s).

Scattered storms will bubble up daily next week with upper low, originating in the Gulf, just sitting over Missouri as upper ridge block progress north or northeastward. 

A random isolated severe storm or two may pulse up, but the strong mid & upper flow for organized severe weather will be WAY, WAY north from The Canadian Prairies to northern Minnesota & Ontario.

This will continue even to next Sunday with scattered storms bubbling up.

Every day Monday-Sunday, coverage should average around 35-45%.

Highs each day should run 86-93 with heat indices 91-103 with dew points in the 70s.

Southerly winds will become increasingly light, so it should be quite oppressive.

The risk of a tropical system developing in the southwest Caribbean to southern Gulf & Bay of Campeche will continue to increase.

Right up to Sunday, June 13, the main mid & upper flow for organized severe weather will be WAY, WAY, WAY north from eastern Washington to central Alberta to the central & northern Canadian Prairies to northern Ontario.  That is were organized severe weather will occur with an incredible stretch of record warmth.

If there is going to be a Progressive Derecho, it is going to be toward Lake Winnipeg & Hudson Bay!

We should turn dry, but remain hot around June 14-19.  Widespread 90s are expected. 

The remnants of a tropical system may reach the Plains & combine with a rather weak surface cold front to bring us showers & storms around June 20.  Meanwhile, another tropical system may be headed for the U.S. at that point.

These tropical remnants will be VERY IMPORTANT in bringing some welcome rainfall.  It is systems like this that are the forecast wildcard with drought this summer.

Hot upper ridge is semi-permanent for the summer with heat & drought, but the very active tropics could counteract those effects in intervals with cooling rainfall, storms & downpours.

June 20 was a period to watch for severe weather risk here, but current data suggests that (once again) the stronger mid & upper flow for organized severe storms will be displaced WAY north of our area in southern Canada to northern New England.  There, I think severe weather risk will arrise.

After that, heat waves dominate late June through mid-July with 90s to some 100/100s expected.

Overall trend is dry & hot, but tropics are again the wildcard.  Also, the edge of the upper ridge could bring random round of storms in the "Ring of Fire" if we can get a decent upper trough into Ontario & New England.

That would put the "Ring of Fire" trajectory right into our area.

Otherwise, hot, dry, oppressive weather with a few random pop-ups of storms will be commonplace.

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Hot today with sunshine, then muggy and stormy
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