June 4, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest update.

Posted: Jun 4, 2020 10:20 PM
Updated: Jun 4, 2020 10:57 PM

Patchy to areas of fog are likely tonight with lows in the 60s to near 70.

Severe storms are blowing up in Iowa & more will fire in southern Minnesota.

The complexes of storms will gell & move southeastward & then fade.

This combined with other MCSs west of there will make for a couple of MCVs, including one that will pivot through Illinois to Michigan & Indiana tomorrow (with an outflow boundary as well).

Not an especially strong one, it should encounter good heating here with highs 87-92 with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  This will bring heat indices in the 90s to around 100.

Given that heating & a weak cold front sagging southward & south-southwestward, I am still one the fence about potential storm cluster & severe risk here.  Indeed, there is some capping present, but it looks to erode.

I have been toying with this for days & models just haven't picked up on it at all for us.  I sort of backed away from it a bit today, but it still lags in the back have my mind of analogs stored in my brain. 

I'd like to make another mention of the set up for tomorrow.

This has shown up in the HRRR4 & Canadian GDPS model, but not much in any other U.S. models.  The Euro has it exploding a big complex of severe storms southwest of our area & puts us in its veil of high & mid clouds later in the day.

All this said, keep open to the fact of the potential of a cluster or complex of storms with severe risk developing tomorrow late afternoon-evening.

Take that out of the equation & you still have a weak surface cold front that will pass that may pop a few spotty storms.

The MCV would tend to be a severe weather producer, however.

Most data still has this scenario of a few potential storms struggling through capping with the cold front & the main severe weather west & southwest of us with MCV dropping south-southeast.

Canadian RDPS does bring a few storms from the cold front & then a skimming of the severe MCS over our western counties.

Our 1 km IBM GRAF model DOES pop an organized, evolving bow of storms that move southeast, then south, then southwest in the area.

All this said, just be aware that it will be a very warm to hot & humid to muggy day in an unstable environment, but there will be considerable capping for at least part of the day.

Also, know that severe storm complex(es) up stream will produce one or two MCVs.

The weak surface cold front sagging through tomorrow evening may pop a few storms. 

However, MCV(s) may pop storms of better organization & severe risk & the track of such storms will need to be monitored to see if there are impacts here.

Otherwise, the weekend still looks bright & very warm with low humidity & 80s with comfy nights.

We will likely pick up a veil of wispy high cirrus from storm complexes northwest of our area a time or two.

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Mild Conditions Continue Wednesday
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