Few storms will pop tonight-Wednesday morning (12 a.m.-8 a.m.)
An isolated severe storm or two is possible (main threat is large hail) with MARGINAL RISK of severe weather.
Our rainfall coverage will run around 35-40% late tonight-Wednesday morning.
Some areas will not even see a drop of rain, considering the scattered nature of the storms.
I think we will all go to SLIGHT RISK of severe for tomorrow. Parameters certainly support risk upgrade to the area. This will likely occur in the next SPC forecast.
It may not occur in this next round of forecast from SPC, but it is possible that either tomorrow morning's forecasts (early AM & nearing midday) may show a pocket of ENHANCED RISK here if the current parameters continue to hold.
It appears that supercells & muti-cells will develop, merging into clusters with rapid evolution towards a couple of lines of storms in the area. Those two will eventually gell into one single line of several west-east oriented bowing or large bulging areas in the line. This morphing to a single, solid line will occur over our southern counties or just south of here.
Overall, our main threats are wind & large hail. Large hail & some downburst-type wind cores will tend to be a threat in the initial development or early stages of the storms. Larger areas of straight-line wind will become more dominant with time.
Overall brief tornado risk is low, but cannot 100% be ruled out early in the storm development or in a comma head or LEWP (S shape) that can form in the lines.
Timing ifor storms & any severe risk is 1 p.m. to 8 p.m.
The storms do look more widespread now with coverage averaging 70-80%. This means much of the area may get a soaking rainfall of 0.65-1.50".
The storms will be moving at a good clip at 50-55 mph, but supercell/multi-cell to supercell/multi-cell clusters to line evolution may involve some bit of training as they all merge.
Thursday & Friday look good with sun/clouds & 82-85 with lows 59-65.
Merger of tropical depression or low pressure from the Gulf of Mexico with upper low in the Texas Panhandle will move northeastward as one system.
This will affect us Saturday to Monday with the greatest rainfall coverage on Sunday.
Scattered showers & storms will bubble up in spokes pivoting around the system. Isolated severe storm or two is possible.
Some sun will break between the showers & storms with muggy conditions & highs 80-85 with lows 66-70.
Tuesday looks dry, but a cold front & upper trough may bring a line of storms late Wednesday with some severe risk.
Between the weekend & mid next week, solid 1-2" of rainfall is likely.
Heaviest rainfall with the frist system looks to stay south & southeast of us right now. The Wednesday potential squall line looks fast moving with low risk of heavy rainfall with totals of 0.50-0.75" at the moment.
The rest of next week looks dry at the moment.
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