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June 3, 11 AM Weather Forecast Update

Risk of severe weather this afternoon-early evening.

Posted: Jun 3, 2020 10:40 AM
Updated: Jun 3, 2020 11:42 AM

Numerous severe weather reports occurred with the storms from the Dakotas to New York.

Storm complex this morning continues to work through Pennsylvania with Severe T'Storm Watch on periphery of hot upper ridge.

Current showers & storms over northern Illinois will tend to fade & new storm development occur as debri cloudiness thins.

SLIGHT RISK for severe weather is up for our area as this new development occurs.

Exact timing for severe weather risk appeared to be 3-8 p.m. two days ago & 2-7 p.m. yesterday.

There is a trend to shift the risk of any severe weather here to the 4-10 p.m. time frame & I would agree.

The convective debri cloudiness from the fading Illinois showers/storms will tend to delay new, deep convective development in Illinois.

The clouds will need to thin & cumulus develop along outflow boundary & with apparent subtle MCV from storms in Nebraska/Iowa lastnight.

ML CAPE of up to 3000 J/kg, DCAPE up to 1700 J/kg & effective bulk shear of up to 30 knots developing here supports multi-cell clusters with wind & hail at first.  A transition to the gelling/amalgamation of storms into an increasingly large, bowing, thick squall line with a (large evolving MCS) will occur.

Wind & hail at first will evolve into widespread wind situation as the MCS line moves south, then southwestward turning into a large U shape.

Once this exits, watch for patchy to areas of dense fog after 3 a.m. tonight as cirrus shield from the storms thin (with a calm wind).  Lows in the 60s to near 70 are likely.

On the tail end of this MCSs outflow boundary & MCV, a couple isolated storms are possible here tomorrow with 25% coverage (slightly better coverage will be in central Illinois). 

Note the severe weather in Minnesota Thursday afternoon-evening, which will play a role in our weather Friday.

Complex of severe storms in Minnesota & Iowa Thursday night to Friday morning will fade by Friday midday.

However, the MCV will then pivot into Illinois & then our area with convective debri cloudiness (high & mid clouds).

We look quite capped, however, it is possible that this MCV will be a trigger for new storm development.

Storms may fire into complex of storms or MCS.

Note the track of it to the southeast.  It would have a severe risk for mainly wind.

It could impact our area or largely track just southwest of us.  We will see.

At first it appeared the MCV would track right over the area fairly early & then pop storms in Ohio.

It looks more like the storms & eventual MCS will occur farther west.

Stay tuned for updates on this as tweaks to this forecast are possible.

Highs today through Friday will tend to run in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 102.

Saturday-Monday looks dry with highs in the 80s & 90s with lows in the 60s with abundant sunshine. 

The complexes (MCSs) of severe storms will tend to occur from the Dakotas to Wisconsin as "Ridge Riders".

The parameters look MODERATE at times in the western Corn Belt & Northern Plains this weekend to next week.  A tornado outbreak could occur early next week in the Dakotas to Minnesota to Iowa & parts of Nebraska.

The remnants of "Cristobal" will merge with Plains surface low & one single, very deep storm may develop by mid- to late-next week.

Showers & storms are likely here Wednesday.

Shear & stronger low & mid-level wind fields along with strong upper level winds mean potential of some severe weather risk Wednesday, even with considerable cloudiness & rainfall around.

We will monitor.

Cooler, more comfortable weather is likely late next week here.

However, heat & humidity will return fairly quickly.  Severe weather risk will return to our area with the heat around the June 13-14 time frame with a potential "Ridge Rider". 

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