June 29, 12:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

Some more storms & increasing heat & humidity.

Posted: Jun 29, 2020 12:03 AM
Updated: Jun 29, 2020 12:37 AM

With boundaries from storms yesterday (& weak surface frontal boundary) in the area today amidst a tropical airmass with dew points to 78 with low cumulus cloud bases, a few landspout funnels formed.  These were formed in the shear of these outflow boundaries & it was easy for the spinning tubes of air to be pulled vertical.  Funnels condense easily due to the very moist airmass & the low cloud bases. 

Most formed with a few developing showers, but some formed from just towering cumulus clouds.

All-in-all, shower/storm development was much more limited Sunday, but it was oppressively hot with Sarahan dust of varying thickness moving through overhead.

Our high at our WLFI ob site was 88, but the heat index tied for highest of the year for a third time at 97.

It was also the second morning in a row that the low did not drop below 70.

Waters continue to recede in flash flood-stricken areas of Newton, Jasper & Benton counties.

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Some scattered storms are likely Monday, especially in the afternoon & evening after patchy fog in the morning (& muggy 68-72).

In tropical airmass, highs will reach 88-93, but heat indices of 96-105 are expected.

Any storms may be slow moving, so locally-heavy rainfall is possible. 

There is the risk of a couple/few isolated severe storms as well.  These will be pulse-type storms, so they will tend to pump out their strong to severe gust & possibly some hail with torrential rain, then collapse while new cells form nearby.

These will all collapse in the evening.

Some patchy fog is possible Tuesday morning, followed by storms possible in the afternoon-evening.

Trigger for the storm development will be a well-formed MCV in Illinois.

In tropical, hot, humid airmass, it appears that a line of heavy storms with severe gust risk may impact the area.

Highs of 88-93 are possible with heat indices 96-105.

Overall, the risk of storms will go down with time as hot, dry, subtropical upper ridge takes over with substantial capping.

Very oppressive, hot weather will occur with wetter soils, lusher vegetation & corn in very active growth stage.  This will put dew points way up into the 70s to 80.

With time, the dew points will lower some as soils dry, but it still looks very hot with all-out heat wave ahead.

The first half of July overall looks hotter & a bit drier than normal.

Even though a small break may occur with the heat after the midpoint, the trend is still for hotter & than normal pattern for the remainder of the month.

Overall, the month of July continues to trend drier than normal.

August is trending hotter & drier than normal overall.  However, the tropics may be active, which will be a wildcard for us.

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