June 28, 4:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Long stretch of hot, humid weather to continue.....with some storms.

Posted: Jun 28, 2019 3:41 PM
Updated: Jun 28, 2019 4:57 PM

An isolated storm is possible this evening with MCV pivoting through central Illinos & a couple diffuse outflow boundary coming into the area. 

Any storm would battle a lot of capping, it is possible that one pops through.

A couple/few isolated storms are possible Saturday as outflow boundary & MCV pivot through & near the viewing area.

They will battle capping, but a few will likely break through in a hot, humid airmass.

One may briefly pulse up & go severe before collapsing. 

Risk would be an isolated, out-of-no-where sudden (seemingly) downburst with some hail.

Kept the coverage at 20% with highs 89-91 & heat indices peaking at 93-102.  Winds will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph.

Despite capping, added 20% POPs to Sunday-Monday due to a couple of outflow boundaries (& a nearby remnant MCV) that will surge southward from storm complexes (MCSs) to our northwest & north.

These may be enough to pop a couple of storms in th hot, humid airmass, though they may struggle a bit.

One may pulse up & go briefly severe on either of the days.

Risk would be an isolated, out-of-no-where sudden (seemingly) downburst with some hail.

Highs will run 90-94 with heat indices 96-106 with southwest winds at 5-15 mph.

Overnight lows will run at just 69-74.

A couple isolated storms are possible Tuesday, despite continued capping.  This will be due to outflow boundary & nearby MCV from previous complexes (MCSs) of storms overnight.

Otherwise, it looks dry with 90-94 & heat indices 97-106.

As weak cold front approaches Wednesday, a scattering of storms is likely with highs 89-93.

Very high dew points of 75-78 may pool ahead of the front, resutling in heat indices that may reach 99-112.

Storm coverage will average 50% & tend to peak in the late afternoon-evening.

Given their slow-moving nature, pockets of locally-heavy rainfall are possible.

Any severe risk looks pulsey & isolated.

Unfortunately, scattered storms are likely on July 4 with a peak in the coverage late afternoon-evening.

It appears that the scattered storms may organize a bit more than they did on Wednesday, July 3.

They would most likely congeal into a cold-pool line with the risk of a couple isolated severe gust in a broad area of gust front winds that will eventually surge out ahead of the line.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible given highs 86-91 with dew points of 75-79.

Any rainfall Friday looks confined to the morning, followed by sunshine/cumulus clouds & highs of 81-86 with still relatively humid dew points in the 60s to 70.

The best relief from the heat & humidity will occur with a lake breeze front in the far northwest (with our north wind).

There, dew points may drop to 60 with temperatures falling to aroun 77 after highs near 82.

Hot, humid pattern will dominate until mid-July (with off & on storms).

After bout of potentially widespread storms with severe risk, mid-July looks cooler & wetter than normal, followed by the return of hot, humid weather late in the month.

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Clearer Wednesday after some patchy morning fog
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