June 27, 4:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Few Storms & Hottest, Muggiest Weather of 2019 (So Far) Ahead.

Posted: Jun 27, 2019 3:19 PM
Updated: Jun 27, 2019 4:33 PM

Convergence of two outflow boundaries & a lake breeze front with an MCV in hot, unstable airmass produced a mass of slow-moving, intense storms lastnight over northern Newton & northern Jasper counties.

Highest rainfall total measured from a spotter was 6" at Lake Village.  4.10" was measured near Demotte.

Pea to nickel-sized hail was also reported.

A measured wind gust of 50 mph was recorded norther of Morocco.  In the rural area of northeastern Newton County, radar showed evidence of a wet microburst with winds up to 70 mph, but I have not received any reports of wind damage from that area.

Today, we are quite capped, but there is an outflow boundary draped over the southern part of the area from the storms lastnight in the northwest.  It continues to migrate back northward into the heart of the area.  This is attached to a compact MCV in Ohio that also developed from the storms in those northwest lastnight.

There is a lake breeze front, but it should not sag much to the south.

There is also an organized MCS & squall line approaching northwestern Illinois. 

All that said......................

Indeed, the main corridor of severe MCSs will be north & northeast of our area right to early next week.

The one to the northwest now is forecast to collapse tonight as it tries to move southeastward. 

Meanwhile, another will try to move southeastward as well.  It will collapse early Friday morning.

Each will bring some cloudiness to the area & a couple of outflow boundaries.  They will collapse as they encounter the strong cap & strengthening upper ridge.

Despite the cap & ridging, given two outflow boundaries in the area tomorrow, an isolated pulsey storm or two is possible if cap can be breached. 

Given the unstable, hot enviroment, should an isolated storm on these boundaries completely breach the cap, it could go severe (albeit briefly).

Lows tonight will run 67-72, followed by highs of 88-92 tomorrow with heat indices of 92-102.

Ridging & capping looking exceptional strong Sunday through a chunk of Tuesday, so kept it dry & breezy at times with 90-94 & heat indices of 95-105.

Scattered showers & storms are likely Tuesday night through Wednesday to Thursday morning.

Dynamics & shear will be lacking, as weak front will outrun those ingredient for organized, widespread storms.

These look pulsey, slow-moving & occasionally gelling into linear clusters & lines.  Isolated severe weather could occur, but nothing looks widespread or particularly intense.  Locally-heavy rainfall could occur given slow nature of storm movement & projected dew points of 75-78.  Precipitable water values look pretty high (water to wring out).

I went for a drying trend on the Fourth of July, but some data suggests that front may be slow to exit or even stall over the area given a lack of strong winds aloft to push it alone.  The stronger upper level winds to push things along will be over Manitoba & Ontario.

Although it will turn a bit cooler near the Fourth, the tend is for a hot, humid pattern until mid-July with 90s forecast & multiple days of +100 heat indices.

It appears that the main corridor of organized severe storms will occur well northwest & north & northeast of our area.

Anything we get will be isolated to scattered & pulsey in nature.

Note the dominant upper ridging proceeding the Fourth period right up to around July 13.

Ridge flattens & troughiness develops here in mid-July.

In this transition, an organized round of storms with severe risk normally occurs.

This upper troughiness means cooler, less humid weather ahead with dominant north to northeast winds.

We still look to cool off to below normal temperatures for a bit in mid-July with highs dominated by the 77-82 range with lows 52-56.

However, late July should heat up & potentially heat up in a big way before early August turns cooler & wetter.

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