SEVERE WX : Excessive Heat Warning View Alerts

June 26, 10:50 PM Weather Forecast Update

Few storms this evening & a few more in the forecast with hot, humid weather.

Posted: Jun 26, 2019 9:59 PM
Updated: Jun 26, 2019 11:06 PM

Today was the hottest of 2019 at the Purdue Airport & multiple other locations in the area.  The airport hit 89, but we reach 90 (90.1) on station observation equipment.

Heat indices reached as high as 97 in the area today.

A few pulsey storms popped this afternoon-evening as capped was breached with approach of weak remnant MCV with diffuse outflow boundary over area from overnight decaying gusty showers/thunder.

0.75" hail was reported from near Goodland & Francesville.  Marble hail was reported near Remington.

Rainfall has been extremely variable over short distances in Benton, White to Newton, Jasper & Pulaski counties, but the heaviest storms have produced 2-2.3" in 1-2 hours.

Now, as of 10:30 p.m., in Jasper/Newton (where lake breeze & two outflow boundaries have converged) torrential storms are sitting there.  Also remnant MCV is pivoting through, leading to this cluster of storms with enhanced lift.

A wet downburst & some hail is still possible over the next 30 minutes as they begin their collapse.

This is quintessential hot summer season Hoosier mesoscale meteorology with various subtle triggers in a hot, humid airmass with warm, dry cap layer being breached.

Even short-range, really good meso-scale models are not handling the storms in our far northwest very well tonight.  They just did not have much. 

Even the high resolution models that update ever hour have trouble with the subtle features of lake breeze fronts, outflow boundaries & even remnant MCVs. 

I do think the storms will collapse pretty rapidly over the next couple to few hours & the outflow boundary from those may pop a couple/few isolated storms in our area tomorrow afternoon-evening.

However, a lot of capping is forecast to be over the area & we will not have an MCV around, so we will how much the storms will struggle to go up.  I kept coverage at 20%.

Any isolated storm that does pop & can completely breach the cap could go briefly/pulsey severe (hail/wind).

MCS' line of severe storms will collapse northwest of us Thursday night-early Friday morning.

We will see debri cloudiness Thursday night to Friday morning (leftover high/mid clouds from the storms.

However, this will thin for the midday-afternoon & we should still heat up with eventual build up of some cumulus.

Watch the spin in central Illinois Friday late afternoon-evening. 

That is the MCV from the massive blow up of an MCS northwest of our area.  Again, there is so much rising air motion that the surface pressure drops & you essentially from a small meso-low or vortex.

We looked strongly capped Friday, but this MCV could ignite at least a few isolated storms.  Also, there will still be a diffuse outflow boundary in the area.

Any of those storms that can completely breach the cap could go severe.

I am considering removing any mention of storm for Saturday as upper ridge really intensifies in the area.  I am considering bumping up Saturday's high to 92-93.

Sunday & Monday with 90-95, it looks breezy to windy with heat indices 97-108.

Some storms are possible late Tuesday & then Wednesday with 87-91 with heat indices 96-107.

Wind fields will be weak, but high CAPE & some weak convergence on front & on pre-frontal trough will result in pulsey storms in broken lines with isolated severe storms (wind, hail).

July 4 still look dry & partly cloudy with 80-86 with dew points lower at 61-65 with a north wind.

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