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June 26, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Severe T'Storm Watch for parts of our northern counties.

Posted: Jun 26, 2020 9:35 PM
Updated: Jun 26, 2020 11:07 PM

Highs today reached 87-93.

Heat indices peaked as high as 101.

The wind help, however, with gusts to 33 mph.

Peak heat index at our WLFI ob site tied for highest of the year at 97. 

Severe T'Storm Watch is up for Pulaski & Fulton counties in our north with line of severe storms approaching.

There are numerous Severe T'Storm Warnings just northwest of our area for damaging straight-line winds.

Line will impact entire viewing area.

However, line will gradually gust out & weaken with southward progression.  The gust front will surge out well ahead of the line.

Nonetheless, it will still have some wind risk with it, even in the heart of the area & southward.  However, it looks like the better risk of more concentrated severe gust risk is in our northern counties, while it is more isolated with southward extent.

Time frame for severe risk in the viewing area is 11 p.m. & then up to about 3 a.m.

Outflow boundary from the storms tonight will lay up over southern Indiana Saturday morning, but low-level southerly flow may pull it back northward.  This will serve as a focus for scattered storm development in the afternoon-evening.

Also, MCV will be pivoting through Missouri to southern Illinois, which may add to the development & also cause a lot of storms southwest, south & southeast of our area.

MARGINAL RISK of severe weather is up for the area & region, but a SLIGHT RISK area may be painted to cover the MCV.  This may include a bit of our area. 

We will monitor.

Risk here would be some wind & hail.  Locally-heavy rainfall with +2.50"/hour rates are also possible in the heaviest storms.

Otherwise, it looks like a very warm to hot, muggy day with highs in the 80s to near 90 with 70s dew points making it feel more like well into the 90s.

Winds looks pretty strong from the southwest at 15-25 mph.

Saharan dust may turn sky rather hazy Sunday.

Skies look partly cloudy with highs 87-91. 

Storm development looks inhibited by the warm, dry, dusty layer, so kept coverage at 25%.

It does look muggy with heat indices well into the 90s to near 100.

The wind will be much less from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  So, it will be a stifling.

I put Monday coverage at 30% due to some dust clearing & the big severe storm complexes producing a well-defined MCV that will pivoting through Wisconsin.

This may help to pop a few scattered storms with isolated severe risk.

I may bump the coverage higher if MCV tracks farther south.

It will be hot & humid with highs 88-93 with heat indices 93-101.

Speaking of this Saharan dust, it has led to intense heat in Florida.  90-95 is common in Florida in summer.  However, widespread temperatures of 97-103 are rare.  This hot, dry upper ridge with lack of any storms with the dusty haze has led to this near/record heat in Florida.

The rest of next week looks increasingly capped & hot, then very hot with highs in the 90s & lows near 70 to the 70s.

July 3, 4 & 5 look especially hot with potential of one day seeing 93-100 for highs.  However, with time, it appears that dew points will drop from 70-75 to 60-65.

Storms are possible around July 7-8 with some severe weather risk.

West Lafayette
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Frankfort
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Wet, then drier with very warm to hot & humid weather.....
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