June 24, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

Rainfall, then hot, humid weather ahead.

Posted: Jun 24, 2019 11:12 AM
Updated: Jun 24, 2019 2:18 PM

Some scattered showers have been in the area & around the region this morning.  They should peak in coverage early this afternoon.  So, if you haven't gotten in on rainfall yet, you will this early afternoon.

By late afternoon, they should be exiting & sun will begin to appear from west to east. 

With this sun, a few new showers & storms may pop this evening.  A random, isolated severe storm or two is possible, otherwise any severe risk looks to stay northwest & east & southeast of the viewing area.

Highs today will run in the upper 70s to the 80s with high humidity.

Skies should clear tonight with lows of 60-65 (with some patchy fog possible), followed by lots of sunshine Tuesday & highs of 83-87.  Dew points will run in the 60s to 70, so it will be humid to muggy with southwest winds at 10-20 mph.

I did go for potential of some storms Tuesday evening-night as potential is there for storms to fire on periphery of upper ridge & come in here during that time.  They will try to organize into an MCS, but may struggle to do so in lack of good dynamics, shear & also some developing capping issues.

Looks like they will weaken with time, but a MARGINAL RISK of severe may be eventually warranted for part of the area.

Hot, humid weather looks to dominate mid to late week & right into next week.

Highs will run generally 89-94 with heat indices of 97-110.  Overnight lows in the upper 60s to the 70s will dominate.

Each day looks to feature hazy sunshine & some clouds with only a couple/few isolated storms from time to time as the "Ridge Riders" shift northwest & north to northeast of our area.

It is not out of the question that an MCS breaks off & rides into the area early to mid next week or an outflow boundary (from an MCS) or two pops some more widespread storms a time or two next week.

Severe risk could accompany any of these storms.

More consistent rounds of widespread storms will arrive after July 4 or 5 as axis of the ridge points the storms more in our direction.

A could front & upper trough swinging through near July 10 will likely cut the heat & humidity for a few days afterward.

Overall, a cooler pattern may settle in for mid-July before we HEAT UP in a big way in late July.

There is a very intense ridge with record heat developing over Europe now.  A similar, but not as strong upper ridge may try to develop in the central & eastern U.S. in late July to early August with widespread 90s in the area with heat indices well into the 100s.

From July 26-28, on the periphery of this intensifying ridge, several intense "Ridge Riders" may develop & track from the Dakotas to Pennsylvania.  One or two could affect our area.

Heat should wane after the start of August with wet, cooler pattern.  August temperatures overall, should average below normal, it appears.

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