It was a nice start with lows 55-60 this morning after highs of 74-80 yesterday.
Clouds will bubble up today to a few showers & storms as shortwave pivots through (cold air aloft with steepening lapse rate).
Highs will run in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a west wind & low dew points in the 50s.
As some showers & storms rain through the drier air, some strong, gusty winds are possible. One or two may also produce some small hail.
Some patchy fog tonight will give way to lows of 55-60, followed by 81-86 Thursday. Winds will be from the west to west-southwest.
Cumulus clouds look to develop & build with lingering cold air aloft. That said, I included the risk of a couple/few isolated showers in the forecast wording.
The humidity looks pretty comfortable Thursday, however.
Warm front will pass through early Friday morning with a few spotty showers/storms with lows in the 59-66 range.
This will be followed by a hot, humid Friday with south-southwest winds & highs 88-93 with heat indices 95-100.
Note the line of severe storms in Iowa & northwestern Illinois by Friday evening around 7-8 p.m.
This line of storms will move southeastward. It does look to weaken with time Friday night to early Saturday morning, however, it may hold on just long enough for risk of a couple severe gusts in our northwestern half of the viewing area.
This weakening complex of storms with developing MCV & an MCV tracking Kansas to Missouri will lead to storms & severe weather risk from southern Ohio, through Kentucky, Missouri & far southern Indiana Saturday.
Here, we will have considerable debri cloudiness to filter out Saturday. It appears that as this high/mid cloudiness thins, the surface cold front/wind shift will be laid up over the area in the late afternoon-evening. This should allow for some scattered storms to develop with up to 40% coverage.
Highs of 84-90 are likely with heat indices 87-96.
On tail end of severe storms south of our area Saturday, some new storms are possible Sunday with highs 88-92 with heat indices 93-99.
Above normal temperatures dominate for the first half of July with hot upper ridge dominance.
Rainfall is trending below normal for the first half of July.
Overall, July looks warmer than normal.
July also looks drier than normal.
The overall warmer than normal pattern is expected for the July-August-September period.
Rainfall continues to trend below normal, overall, for the July-August-September period.