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June 23, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the cooler, less humid weather, then the return of the heat & high humidity.

Posted: Jun 23, 2020 4:05 PM
Updated: Jun 23, 2020 5:05 PM

Rainfall varies from 0.25-3.5" over the past 7 days, it falling Saturday, Sunday & Monday evening-night.

The +2" totals were in pockets & not widespread.

The higher totals overall were in the western half of the area with some exceptions, including around Lafayette, northern Newton County, southeastern Montgomery.  Less fell overall in Carroll, Cass, Fulton, Miami & Howard counties, as well.

Much more rainfall is needed as demand for water from growing crops, gardens & vegetation is high.

Storm reports Saturday, Sunday & Monday......

We had a report of a window blown in at IU Arnett Hospital on the east side of Lafayette & part of a tree down blocking a road along Jackson Highway near Montmorenci from storms yesterday evening.

Those were the only storm reports received in our area.  There was much more in the way of severe weather around us to the west, east, northwest & south to southeast.

A few isolated showers are possible this evening to early tonight as pocket of cold air aloft (shortwave) pivots through.

Clearing will follow with lows 55-60.

I took out mention of some patches of fog due to west-northwest wind staying up above 6 mph.

Cold air aloft (with shortwave) with ample sun will bubble up some scattered showers & t'storms Wednesday.

Highs will run 78-83 with low humidity & a light west wind.

Dry air may enhance downdrafts, leading to an isolated strong to severe gust & cold air aloft supports mentions of isolated small hail.

Thursday currently looks mostly sunny with still low humidity & highs 81-86 with a light west-southwest wind.  This, after 55-60 in the morning with some patchy fog.

Front will move back north as a warm front bathe us in the heat & humidity once again Friday.  Dew points will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Temperatures will go back up to 88-93 with heat indices 93-99 after 62-67 in the morning for low temperatures.

A wave of some storms is possible Friday evening.

It appears a round of rain & storms is possible Saturday.  Heating ahead of it & the complex's (MCS) timing will determine whether this is a SLIGHT RISK severe scenario or MARGINAL to less.

I went for more of an afternoon passage at the moment with highs 87-92 with high humidity bringing heat indices to 94-99.

I am going to "MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters" for the wording right now with average of 65% coverage of rainfall.

Some storms are possible on outflow boundary of MCS as that boundary moves back northward.  I went for 45% coverage of rainfall with highs 86-91 with muggy conditions.

MCV is evident south of Dallas right now & multiple complexes of storms have moved through the region.

Like last year, the MCV & low pressure associated with the very deep convection (storms) over a large area could bring tropical development.

However...............

....................the thick, thick plume of Saharan dust will arrive & persist in that area Friday-Saturday.

Storms may become greatly inhibited as warm, dry, dusty cap takes over.

This may put the kabosh on tropical development & put the kabosh on a lot of storms in the Southeast.

We will see some dust aloft come in Saturday night-early Sunday before departing.  The dust density will be much greater southeast of our area, however, it may be enough to inhibit storms a little bit Sunday (why I dropped POPs to 45% from 60%).

You can see what this thick dust does in this current visible satellite image:

Upper ridging from the West & also courtesy of dry, warm, dusty cap in the Southeast will promote lots of heat next week, especially mid to late week.

All MCSs will shift their track northwest & north to northeastward from our area.

We may still see a few isolated storms Monday to Tuesday, then it shuts off.

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