Highs today reached 73-85, coolest northeast, warmest southwest.
This is the outlook in a nutshell late this week to mid-next week. One big hot upper ridge will split into two pieces, one West, the other farther southeastward.
We will be right on the periphery of intense heat in the "Ring of Fire".
Surface front will stall over the area & rounds & rounds of storms will ride & pop along the front. The stronger mid & upper flow will be displaced northwest & north of the area, preventing widespread, more significant severe weather events/outbreaks (ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK) here. However, there will be some isolated severe storms (MARGINAL RISK) at times & even localized SLIGHT RISK.
Localized SLIGHT RISK may occur at in maximized pockets of buoyancy or CAPE &/or over localized increases in shear/wind with MCVs
Heavy rainfall is expected off & on. That rainfall will add up from these rounds of storms as they train over the same areas. +3" is expected viewing area-wide by next Wednesday.
We look muggy withs 80s to up to 91 daily & heat indices 90s to 100 & lows around 70-72.
This is how it will be............just a constant off & on bombardment of MCVs with storms popping & lines & complexes of storms moving through. There will be dry hours in-between, but also rounds of downpours & some pockets of severe risk.
1. Clouds will increase. Thursday MCV pivots through in the PM. We are capped, so any showers/storms will feature 30% coverage.
2. Friday shows a few showers & storms (MARGINAL RISK or isolated severe risk) AM to PM from old remnant MCV pivoting through from storms the night before to our west. Then, complex of storms is possible Friday evening-night with isolated severe risk (MARGINAL RISK.....with potential pocket of SLIGHT).
3. Some lingering rainfall is possible early Saturday morning, followed by sunshine. As we destabilize with heating, a line of scattered storms is expected to form over the area in the PM. A cluster of storms is possible Saturday night. An isolated to spotty severe storm risk is possible.
4. Sunday morning looks dry, but storms should pop in the PM in a broken line again over the area. Another MCV may bring storms Sunday night &/or Monday. Some local isolated to spotty severe weather risk is possible.
5. Multiple rounds of showers & storms are likely Monday night-Wednesday with some local severe risk near MCVs where sun is maximized.
After all of this storminess & flooding risk, hot upper ridging will dominate July 7-15 with 90s to 100s with heat indices +110 as intense heat moves over wet soils with lush vegetation & rapidly-growing corn crop.
We look drier than normal the rest of July, but we also have a higher risk of a Progressive Derecho in the "Ring of Fire" given the extreme CAPE that may develop & the proximity of the periphery of the upper ridge.
We should cool off overall with time in August, but it may turn quite dry for a while before welcome rainfall returns.
September looks cooler & drier than normal.