It was a cool morning with lows 44-53. I will have an observed low temperature map up later today.
It is a beautiful afternoon with cumulus clouds & temperatures as of 1:30 p.m. at 68-76 over the viewing area, headed for 74-81.
Mid-level altocumulus castellanus & mackeral clouds with some wispy cirrus should begin to move in from the northwest from Iowa & Illinois this evening.
The leftovers of some scattered large hail-producing rather elevated supercells in Iowa (on nose of strong low-level jet north of the warm front) will pass tomorrow morning & even a bit tomorrow afternoon. These will be in the form of a few showers & possibly a couple storms. Coverage will run 30%.
They will occur with elevated altocumulus castellanus north of the warm front where the surface is not very unstable with low dew points, but a nosing of a layer of more unstable air will come in at 7,000' from the west. That is where the showers/storms will root.
After mid 50s to lower 60s tonight with skies turning mostly cloudy, highs tomorrow will vary from 79 far northeast to 87 in the southwest, south of the warm front.
Winds will turn to the south & southwest from the southeast during the day at 10-15 mph.
Old MCV from severe storms in Iowa to Missouri Wednesday night-Thursday AM is now projected to move in late Thursday afternoon-evening.
Question is if any storms will fire with it. We are very capped & there will be a large, expansive mass of mid level cloudiness associated with it & perhaps even a few lingering showers.
We will monitor to see if anything changes regarding storm development with the MCV pivoting through our area.
It does make for a trickier temperature forecast. With the ridge not moving as far to the north & us being right on the edge, 91-97 (94 Greater Lafayette) seems less likely Thursday (& in combo with the MCV clouds, etc.).
Let's go with 87-94 (93 Greater Lafayette) for now with heat indices 93-101.
IF the MCV is delayed & the ridge still expands a bit more, then we will see that 91-97 day with heat indices 96-107.
Regardless, winds will be south to south-southwest at 10-25 mph during the day.
Current analysis continues to suggest a line of storms moving through Friday afternoon &/or evening.
With strong south to southwest winds 15-25 mph, highs of 88-95 are expected with heat indices 95-104.
Current parameters suggest SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK for severe with greatest potential in Iowa, Missouri & Illinois to southern Wisconsin.
Main mid & upper level wind fields will be well north of the area Saturday-Tuesday, but surface front will be stalled over the area, so scattered showers & storms & clusters of showers & storms will occur daily.
Pockets of instability will fuel MARGINAL RISK (isolated severe) for the area likely on all three days, but it does not look to exceed that at this point.
MCVs may support localized SLIGHT RISK pockets. We will monitor.
80s to 90 should dominate for highs with high humidity & lows in the 60s to 70.
We will be right on the edge of the hot upper ridge. Only thing not being multiple days of higher risk is the dact that those strong wind fields aloft are well north of the area.
Front may sag enough south for briefly cooler bout, but it appears the front will eventually push back north. We will be bathed in heat & humidity again with southwest winds & the "Ring of Fire" of storms will move northward out of the area.
80s to 90 back down to 80s will then be replaced by 92-98 with heat indices 99-110 by July 7.
Very hot horseshoe upper ridge will dominate California to the Plains to Canada & the Midwest & Northeast.
Cooler pocket will occur in the Deep SOuth & Oklahoma to Texas.
100 is possible again in our area July 8-15 period.
July 8-15 period looks drier than normal.