June 22, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on how the thick Saharan dust may affect our weather down the road.

Posted: Jun 22, 2020 9:50 PM
Updated: Jun 22, 2020 10:54 PM

Measured gusts have come in at 40-45 mph this evening, but there were likely a few higher ones.  One core looked intense near Montmorenci where I received a report of half a tree down blocking a subdivison road. 

I also have a report of a window blown in at IU Arnett Hospital from Emergency Management.  One spotter does have a weather station just east of Monitor.  The peak sustained wind was 32 mph, but there is no gust data.  Rossville tower site measured 38 mph gust.  Flora measured a gust of 41 mph.

Undoubtedly, a few gusts exceeding 50 mph occurred, though.

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Storms will taper to more just rain & some thunder & lightning at times tonight.

Rainfall will taper to just a few showers later on tonight to early tomorrow morning.

Clouds & sun tomorrow with west-northwest winds 10-25 mph (highs 78-84) will usher in some lower humidity (dew points dropping to upper 50s to lower 60s).

However, a few showers/t'showers will bubble up in the heating of the day.

It will be the same process Wednesday.  There may be some patchy fog early in the morning before the breeze mixes it out.

Thursday looks dry & bright with low humidity, but hotter at 85-88 after 57-62 in the morning with some patchy fog.

Front moves back north as a warm front with hot upper ridge expanding northeast & eastward.

Multiple MCSs or complexes of storms ("Ridge Riders") are possible Friday evening to Sunday.

There are signs of MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK here for some severe gusts. 

The better shear & wind fields aloft for widespread severe storms with higher risk will be displaced northwest & north of the MCS track.  Bigger risk will be concentrated over the Dakotas, Minnesota to Manitoba & western Ontario.

The thick Saharan dust may promote capping & lack of any storms in the Southeast next weekend.  We may see our storms hampered Sunday night-Monday.  I dropped storm coverage to 25% Monday.

This dust may also tend to enhance a developing upper ridge in the Southeast, Midwest to Plains in early July.

This will lead to one hot, dry stretch.

Watch how Southwest U.S. & Southeast ridge merge to form massive, hot, dry ridge by July 2!

Note the MCSs riding around it with one ridging from New England to Florida (moving southwestward!).

That big MCS will need to monitored for some eventual tropical development.  MCS caused a tropical system last year too!

Only fly in the ointment to get that to happen is another surge of Saharan dust.

That may put the kabosh on it.

Forecast dust Sunday night as it arrives in our area.  Some dust Monday may lead to pale, hazy sky.

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