June 22, 1 AM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the outlook now to late July...

Posted: Jun 20, 2021 10:35 PM
Updated: Jun 21, 2021 1:05 AM

Storms will pass in the area after 12 a.m. to as late as 5 a.m.  SLIGHT RISK is up for mainly scattered strong to severe gusts (& risk of brief tornado spin-up north of US 24).

Best severe risk is along & north of US 24.  Farther south, the line will tend to gust out as it arrives with gust front surging out of the line.  Nonetheless, even with that, given the magnitude of downdraft CAPE available, some strong to severe gusts may occur well out ahead of any rainfall.

Clouds/sun & a few spotty showers are possible with gusty northwest winds & highs 75-82.

Clear, calm conditions with some patchy fog is possible by early Tuesday morning.  Lows of 47-54 are likely.

Tuesday looks very nice with winds varying northwest to north to northeast with highs 73-80 with very low humidity & lots of sunshine.

Clouds will increase during the evening.

We look to turn partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday night as warm front & periphery of hot upper ridge expands toward our area.

Lows will level off at 56-61 & may even rise a bit as wind turns more to the southeast & south very late.

A few isolated elevated showers & storms are possible late, late Tuesday night to early Wednesday morning on nose of strong low-level jet pointed toward northwestern Illinois & southeastern Wisconsin.

Coverage here should run 20-25%, it appears.

After this in the morning with puffy mid clouds (altocumulus castellanus & duplicatus, we should see mostly sunny skies by afternoon & a south wind kick in.

Dew points will rise from 50s to 60s with highs 82-90.

Hot upper ridging should overspread area Thursday with 90-95 with heat indices 98-104.  Winds should be strong from the southwest at 20-30 mph.

A "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" complex of severe storms will pivot through Iowa, Wisconsin, possibly northern Illinois, but we look ok, hot & capped here.

We will wait & see if this complex moves any farther south or it clips our north.

Friday is looking to be a day with severe weather risk with ENHANCED RISK parameters seen currently.

It does look like it will heat up to 90-96 with heat indices 100-109 (southwest winds 20-35 mph)with the severe risk tending to be in the late afternoon to early evening. 

Multiple complexes of severe storms in Western Corn Belt & central Plains will rapidly drop the surface air pressure, quickly forming a pretty deep surface low that wil track into the area later Friday.

This will serve as the focus for the severe weather here.

After that, Saturday will be cooler, but still humid.  The actual surface cold front may not pass until Saturday afternoon, resulting in potentially a broken line of storms, though they do not look severe at this time.

Sunday will be bit cooler & less humid with 80-85 & lows Sunday night at 54-60.

Highs Monday, June 28 should run 81-87 with low humidity & sunshine with lows 55-62.

Some pretty dry weather with reasonable humidity & temperatures upper 70s to mid 80s should dominate to round out June.  Nightly lows in the 50s to lower 60s will be frequent.

We will need to monitor Florida to North Carolina for tropical storm or hurricane late June-early July.

Extreme heat will re-build in the Plains with temperatures to 106 as far north & east as Saskatchewan, southwestern Manitoba to western Minnesota, Iowa & western Missouri by July 3.

We should reach the 90s again by July 3-4 with high humidity.

We look to be in the right position for potential "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" storm complex around this time as the ridge builds WAY north & also makes headway eastward.

Horseshoe-shaped very hot, dry upper ridge should dominate after July 4 to mid-July from California to our area to New England.

90s to 100s are possible here with heat indices to 115.

Texas & the South looks cooler & wetter with tropical influences. 

Again, wet South....hot, dry in the horseshoe ridge overall, especially over the Corn Belt to New England.

The monsoon will begin to kick in to the Southwest & Rockies as remnant tropical moisture from the Gulf & far eastern Pacific move that way.  The rainfall will be welcome, but lightning striking distant from storms' rainfall will spell wildfires.

Core of hot, horseshoe-shaped ridge will split into two pieces:  one Indiana to Ontario & New England.

The other:  out West.

As for late July here, there are signs of a bit of a drier trend here.

Monsoonal storms will develop daily in the Rockies to Southwest.  South looks wetter than normal with that wetter than normal weather extending to the far Lower Ohio Valley & Tennessee Valley, likely from the tropics.

45

West Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
86° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 93°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
80° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 86°
Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
86° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 90°
Fowler
Partly Cloudy
86° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 93°
Williamsport
Partly Cloudy
86° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 92°
Crawfordsville
Partly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 91°
Frankfort
Mostly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 91°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
85° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 91°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
85° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 91°
Logansport
Partly Cloudy
82° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 87°
The air will still be pretty bad this weekend with intense, humidity & a few storms.
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