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June 21, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Summer-like weather of high humidity & storms with locally-heavy rainfall & severe risk.

Posted: Jun 21, 2019 9:30 PM
Updated: Jun 21, 2019 11:16 PM

Today's 0.02" at the station keeps the dry streaks of June limited to 3 days or less. 

We have yet to see more than 3 consecutive days without any precipitation since December 16-19.  The Purdue Airport saw 5 to start June, but they did have thunder reported the day we saw that trace (June 1) here at the station.  That period is the only one at the airport that has had more than 3 consecutively dry days since December 16-19.

With some fog, lows early the morning ran 50-57.

Highs reached 73-79 with a late afternoon-evening wave of some rain & some thunder in the southwest.

Quite an outbreak has occurred with the "Ridge Riders" southwest of our area, which produced winds of 95-100 mph in southern Nebraska lastnight. 

Multiple gusts of +75 mph were reported from southern Illinois to western Kentucky & northern Tennessee.  A few embedded supercells in the line produced hail up to teacup size (3" diameter) in southwestern Kentucky!

Line continues to move southeastward along instability gradient & is now approaching an area that hit 97 today (with lots of unstable air).  It should keep going into Georgia & Alabama.  There is too much capping in northwest Alabama to Mississippi for the line, however.  They are too close to core of the hot upper ridge.

New storms should from here on out over northern Missouri to central Illinois & eventually some of those will impact our area later tonight to Saturday morning.  Best coverage & heaviest raifnall will remain southwest of our area, but we will still get scattered storms generally in the 1 a.m. to 10 a.m. time frame.

A storm or two may produce some pea-sized hail.

Before this, some shallow dense fog is possible in places.

Lows will run 59-66.

A dry period is likely for a good chunk of Saturday with increasingly humid to muggy conditions with southeast to south winds & highs 78-86 northeast to southwest over the area.

Heat indices should run 83-91.

Some scattered storms are possible Saturday late evening-night (possibly to Sunday morning......still some question in regards to timing & duration) with lows 65-71. 

An isolated severe storm or two is possible with the risks being mainly hail.

Sunday looks oppressive with highs 85-90 with dew points 75-78 with heat indices 95-105.  Winds will be from the south to southwest with partly cloudy skies.

Well-formed MCV should be moving through central Illinois by midday-early afternoon. 

This will encounter an airmass characterized by a deep layer of CAPE, maxing out at 4000 J/kg near the surface & a very steep 8 C/km low-level lapse rate & a moderately steep 7 C/km mid-level lapse rate.  Effective bulk shear will run in the order of 25-30 kts.

Highly unstable environment with lows of CAPE & DCAPE may result in an evolving line of torrential storms with very high rainfall rates with broad swaths of wind with some embedded wet downbursts. 

IF current parameters hold, then we are looking at an SPC SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK for the area.

Multiple MCVs & a weak cold front will drop through Monday with several waves of showers & storms:  Morning & afternoon to evening.................with some severe risk possible.

Overall, 1-3" of rainfall is possible now to Monday evening with a few isolated +3" amounts possible.

Tuesday looks good.  It will be warm in the 81-86 range, but a hair less humid.

Wednesday-Friday looks very warm to hot & humid.

The heat & high humidity should continue right into July with the next good potential of storms amidst the July 4-6 period.

Highs will eventually reach 89-93 with heat indices of 97-110.

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Chilly and cloudy Tuesday
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