June 20, 11:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Stormy & muggy after this cool night with areas of fog.

Posted: Jun 20, 2019 9:53 PM
Updated: Jun 20, 2019 11:55 PM

Let the "Ring of Fire" or "Ridge Rider" train begin!

Storms will continue to congeal into a severe MCS over western Nebraska tonight, this will race eastward down the warm front & instability gradient.

It will turn southeastward away from our area as it rides the edge of greater instability Friday morning-midday.

Here, a wave of showers will pass tomorrow afternoon.

So, after 50s & areas of fog tonight, clouds will increase tomorrow, winds increase from the southeast & highs will reach 75-81 with that wave of showers in the p.m.

Behind this, lift will increase along the warm front, but behind the MCSs outflow boundary.  This will result in the unstable air from Oklahoma & Texas being thrust up & over the outflow boundary & warm front. 

These "elevated storms" will pop in the evening & into tomorrow night, even early Saturday morning.  They will produce locally-heavy rainfall & the risk of some hail (much of it sub-severe, but an isolated large hailer is possible).

They may taper briefly early Saturday morning, followed by us getting side-swiped by a few more showers & storms Saturday morning.

An extended break from any rainfall is possible from there on out.  High/mid clouds should thin for sunshine with temperatures warming to 78-86 with southerly winds & dew points rising to 68-74.

Cumulus towers may develop later in the day as the atmosphere re-charges.

As this MCV (seen below) pivot through, storms may pop Saturday late afternoon-evening.  This particular model pops the storms & severe risk southeast of our area, but I think they could be farther northwestward into our area.

Severe weather storms to our west & northwest will weaken as they move eastward Sunday morning.

However, we need to watch:

MCVs pivoting out of Iowa to Illinois & northern Missouri & outflow boundary lined up Illinois to Missouri will move eastward as we heat up rapidly through Sunday morning.

This would be what we will need to watch for storm re-development &/or intensification on Sunday.

Highs should surge to 86-91 with dew points 75-78 leading to heat indices around 100 to +100.  Wind risk with locally-heavy rainfall may develop.

Article Comments

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Brief cold snap.......
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