June 2, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Hottest day of 2020 so far featured a dry heat. That will change Wednesday, along with risk of storms. "Cristobal" also still looks to track over the area mid-next week.

Posted: Jun 2, 2020 8:53 PM
Updated: Jun 3, 2020 2:06 AM

Extremes indeed, after record heat last week in eastern Canada to the Northeast, record cold with frost & freezing dominated this morning.

Meanwhile, record heat engulfed the Plains & Midwest.  Temperatures reached +100 in Iowa & Minnesota & upper 90s in parts of Illinois.

High at the Purdue Airport & WLFI ob site was 94.  The record for the date, is 101 in 1934, however.  The Purdue Ag Farm COOP number will come out tomorrow morning.

All observations sites were 90 or in the 90s today in the viewing except one:  New Market (Crawfordsville Municipal Airport) with 88.  That is typically a persistent cooler spot with sensor surrouded by cool wooded creek bottoms in a valley braided with streams flowing toward Shades State Park.

Overall, highs reached 88-96, but heat indices only reached 88-96 due to the dry air.  The winds were strong & helped make it feel cooler, as well.

Severe weather outbreak northwest of our area tonight with reports of severe weather from the Dakotas to Wisconsin.

Report tally is up to around 90 in that region as of 10 p.m. (as plotted by SPC after being sent by local NWS forecast offices all over that region):

Large hail (+1") = green dots

Wind damage & +58 mph gusts = blue dots

Tornado reports = red dots

With a southwest breeze tonight & increasing clouds blowing off the tops of MCS north of the area tonight, lows will only drop to 70-75.  It will become increasingly sticky after such a dry heat this afternoon.

Skies should be partly cloudy tomorrow with upper 80s to lower 90s with much higher humidity.  Heat indices may reach the mid 90s to as high as 102.

2-7 p.m. is main time frame for severe weather risk Wednesday.

Main threat is wind, secondary threat is large hail (largely early in storm evolution).

SPC has SLIGHT RISK up for area. 

Best potential for upgrade to ENHANCED is Pennsylvania to Ohio where wind fields are a bit stronger through the troposphere.

However, I still think there is a chance for an upgrade here or nearby as conditions are good for storms to gell & amalgamate into a line surging & bowing forward with time as it tracks north to south.  In this process a bow of widespread damaging winds may develop.

It will likely then turn back to the southwest toward St. Louis & southern Illinois around periphery of ridge in the evening.

Watch the storms cool things off after the heat quickly builds in the morning to early afternoon:

Patchy to areas of fog are likely tomorrow night to early Thursday morning with lows in the 60s to around 70.

On the tail end of that complex of storms, a few isolated storms may overcome cap Thursday.  I went for 20% POPs here for afternoon-evening.

A pronounced MCV will pivot southwest of our area, but it should keep any more widespread storm development (+40%) southwest of us.

Skies look partly cloudy with highs 87-92 with heat indices 93-100.  Unlike Wednesday, there will be a lack of much wind Thursday, making it feel a bit stifling.

As for Friday, it looks hot & humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the mid 90s to 100.

Friday is a bit of a wildcard.  It appears that an MCV from a storm complex in Iowa the night before may have an MCV that pivots through our area.

Thoughts are that such an MCV would spawn storms in eastern Indiana to Ohio.

We will monitor.  There is low confidence in that forecast.  So, I kept 30% POPs up for Friday.

The weekend looks dry with 85-91 & lows 61-66.  The humidity will be held in check.

Monday-Tuesday look hot & humid, followed by widespread showers & storms Wednesday as the remnants of "Cristobal" merging with a surface low (& a passing, strengthening surface cold front) pass.  Shear & belt of stronger winds in the troposphere support MARGINAL RISK for severe, event despite widespread rainfall & cloudiness.  If any sun appears & breaks in rainfall develop, upgrade to SLIGHT RISK could occur down the road.

Highs will only run in the 70s to 80 Wednesday & 70s Thursday with lows in the 48-55 range by Thursday night.

The heat & humidity will return pretty quickly, however, along with the risk of storm with some severe weather ("Ridge Riders").  Severe weather risk returns in earnest around June 13-14 after this lull with cooler weather.

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