June 2, 11 AM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the heat, the storms & the tropical system remnants ahead.

Posted: Jun 2, 2020 10:42 AM
Updated: Jun 2, 2020 11:44 AM

Today will be mostly sunny & hot with highs 89-94. 

The humidity will be held in check so heat indices will peak at 89-96.

West-southwest winds of 20-33 mph are likely.

It should be breezy tonight with lows in the 70s.

Complex of severe storms will ride north of our area today-tonight with solid ENHANCED RISK parameters.

The complex should reach New York by tomorrow morning to midday.

Storms should fire, gell into a line & impact the area Wednesday afternoon-early evening.

Main threat is wind.

SPC has SLIGHT RISK for severe weather for the entire viewing area.

The better overall shear is Ohio & eastward, which is where the best potential of an outbreak to ENHANCED would occur.

Nebraska area would also be a corridor of ENHANCED parameters.

We will monitor.

Once storms & any lingering rainfall passes, we should be dry tomorrow night & much of Thursday.

It appears that any severe risk Thursday would tend to occur west & south of our area.

I dropped POPs to 20% & kept it confined to early afternoon.

We look quite capped with sun & highs 88-92 & heat indices 94-100.

Complex of severe will will occur northwest of our area Thursday night to Friday morning, then fade mid-morning in Illinois.

Current model analysis suggests the MCV from this will pivot through late morning-midday, but the storms should fire in our far eastern counties & eastward in the early afternoon.

This may result in severe weather risk for our eastern counties & eastward through Ohio.  Parameters look SLIGHT eastern Indiana to Ohio.

So, POPs of 30% look good for now.

We will continue to monitor.

I went for highs of 88-93 with heat indices of 94-100.

All storm & severe weather risk is Nebraska to Minnesota Saturday-Monday.

We look mostly sunny & strongly capped with highs 87-92 Saturday-Sunday with lows in the 60s, though the humidity will be tamed a bit.

It appears that sinking air ahead of the tropical storm/hurricane may bring a 90-94 day Monday.

Note how the worst of the heat (near 100) will be in the Plains & western Corn Belt from Iowa to Nebraska & Kansas.

The tropical storm/hurricane remnants pass Tuesday afternoon-night to Wednesday morning & then merge with low pressure over Minnesota.

This will greatly deepen the low & pull a strengthening cold front through the area.

These events will being widespread rainfall in here, followed by a quick, premature end to the heat.

Highs June 10-12 will only run in the 70s with lows in the 48-55 range.

However, the heat will return rapidly with 90s by June 16 & 100s in the Plains.

Wyoming to Ontario & New England  will be a severe weather corridor with a distinct "Ring of Fire" pattern with "Ridge Riders" June 16-25.

Intense heat will dominate the Plains & Midwest with widespread 90s (93-98 here with heat indices 98-107).

100s in the Plains (even Denver may reach 104 initially) will dominate with near record warmth possible.

We look quite dry & strongly capped.

Watch the intense heat make the migration east & northeastward:

We may get into "Ridge Riders" & severe weather risk here around June 25, it appears.

It is at this point that the hot ridge may break a bit & contract, allowing us to have a very brief cool-down with less humid conditions.

Heat may return, however, June 29-30 & last into July 4.

Of course, the tropics would be the forecast wildcard that we will need to monitor.

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