June 2, 8:30 PM: Outlook to July 1

Some hail & wind last night......"Blackberry Winter" & largely tranquil until Tuesday night.....Watching the western Gulf of Mexico & dry stretch with a stormy ending.

Posted: Jun 2, 2019 7:04 PM
Updated: Jun 2, 2019 8:20 PM

Main corridors of severe weather were northeast & southwest of our viewing area lastnight with lots of wind damage & up to 2" hail (hen egg hail).

However, there were multiple pea to nickle sized hail (0.25-0.88") reports from south side of Lafayette, through Clinton & into Montgomery counties yesterday evening.  Some of the hail accumulated on decks, grass & cars.  Trees & vegetation were reportedly injured in places.

No hail report shows that the hail reached "severe" criteria with it being quarter size (1"in diameter) or greater.

A Blackberry Winter night is ahead.  After highs of 68-76, lows tonight will drop to 44-49.

After some patchy to scattered lake effects clouds in the morning, those clouds may tend to burn off, but high & some mid clouds will increase in the afternoon as warm front moves in, turning wind from northeast to east to southeast.

Highs will vary from 70 in the northeast to 77 in southwest.

Warm front gets active with a lot of showrs & storms west & southwest of us Monday night to Tuesday morning.  We will pick up a lot of cloudiness Monday night.  With warm front, it will make for lows of 55-61.

We may pick up a lot of clouds & perhaps a few showers Tuesday, but the heaviest rainfall will stay southwest & west of us.

High Tuesday will run 73-79 as warm front passes completely.  Winds will shift from the southeast to south & south-southwest.

A few storms could develop Tuesday night in the area near & south of the warm front.

Those storms will tend to increase right to Wednesday morning with a couple/few isolated severe storms possible.

This looks to be followed by a break with no rainfall & some sunshine with warm, humid conditions & temperatures in the 80s.

A second round of storms is possible Wednesday late afternoon-evening with some severe weather risk.

Some showers/storms are possible Thursday morning, then we should dry out as the front shifts southward with clouds/sun & highs in the 77-80 range.

The forecast wildcard is the tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico.  A tropical depression, tropical storm or just low pressure will move along the Texas coast & make landfall in Louisiana.

Track is in question.  If it does move northeast & northward as some data suggests, then it would be bad, bad news for us.  It would spell periods of rainfall & some storms Friday-Sunday with 1.50-4" of rainfall possible for our area.  This would be deep tropical moisture from a tropical system, which would result in enhanced, heavy rainfall rates in our area.

Winds would be from the southeast with bands of rainfall & some storms as core of system tracks nearby.  Isolated tornado risk could even arise if enough heating between bands develops & we end up on the eastern side of the low.

We will monitor.  There is high confidence of tropical system of some sort making landfall, but confidence is not as high on the track.

Given how far behind we are in planting season, the track of this tropical system is crucial to our area. 

Cold front should push the system well to the east rapidly around June 10-11, followed by cooler, drier weather, then warm drier weather overall in the June 12-25 time frame.

It continues to look like an active period of weather with multiple rounds of severe storms with locally-heavy rainfall in the June 26-July 1 period.

With front stalled over the area in hot, muggy airmass with strong westerlies aloft, Supercell Composite Parameter is lit up over the area frequently.

After potential dry stretch to get a crop out (with decent conditions overall for about 1.5 weeks), it may turn quite stormy & wet at the end of June.

The window to get a crop out this year is very TIGHT for most of you & may very well boil down to that period of drier weather June 12-25.

Article Comments

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Rainfall ahead.
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