One storm looks severe on radar this evening: southeastern Howard County (60 mph gust, 1" hail). One looked nearly severe northwest of Newtown & southeast of Attica (55 mph gust & pea hail). The ground reports of severe weather have all been southwest & south of us, however, with two tornado reports in Illinois & a corridor of wind & hail in southern Illinois, southeast Missouri to western Kentucky.
Will extend window for an isolated severe storm for another 1.5 hours as some of these showers & storms move out of Illinois, then just rain & a few storms overnight.
Flooding continues in eastern Howard & southern Miami County with some roads flooded & creeks out of their banks.
Locally-heavy rainfall will still be an issue into tonight.
Rain tomorrow morning to midday should subside & clouds break some. However, it looks like a few spotty showers & t'showers may bubble back up in the cold air aloft in the afternoon to evening.
So, went with 50% rainfall coverage through morning & then 30% for the afternoon.
With brisk northwest wind, high should run 67 north to 75 south & 73 around Greater Lafayette (after 59-64 north to south over the area in the morning).
With a clearing sky & the wind going calm Thursday night, temperatures may tank to 54-59 with areas of dense fog developing. Then, later in the night, some clouds will increase from the west & northwest as warm front lifts northward & temperatures rise to 57-63 with the fog dispersing some.
This will lead to a partly cloudy, warm to very warm, humid Friday with warm front moving northward. With southeast to south & southwest winds 10-20 mph, highs will run 77 northeast to 87 southwest with around 84 at Greater Lafayette.
Heat indices will run 79-92 northeast to southwest.
Latest data suggests a compact, severe MCS (complex of storms) developing & riding along & just south of the warm front right through our area Friday night. Looks like it would have the potential to evolve into a bow.
Timing is currently in the 8 p.m. to 2 a.m. time frame here.
We will monitor.
Hot, very humid weather is in store for Saturday. Latest data suggests highest dew points of 2019 at 74-78 with highs 85-90, bumping heat indices to the highest levels of 2019 at 94-110.
A few storms (some severe) may pop on that MCS' outflow boundary Saturday & then move back through our area in the late afternoon-evening.
Another MCS with severe risk may impact the area Saturday night.
Timing is tricky, we will monitor.
This MCS' outflow boundary may have some late-day storms for us Sunday. Severe risk will be there. Looks very warm to hot & very muggy with 85-90 with heat indices 94-110.
Another MCS is possible Sunday night-Monday morning with some severe risk.
Flash flooding will evolve given repeated storms, high rainfall rates with dew points to 78 & already-wet ground conditions.
Some storms are possible late Monday, followed by a lull Tuesday with slightly less humidity.
Wednesday looks hot & humid with highs 88-92 with heat indices 95-111.
A wave of late-day storms with severe risk is possible.
Next Thursday-Sunday looks dry with bit less humid conditions Thursday-Friday & then the weekend looks humid again.
Highs will be 78-83 Thursday, 78-84 Friday & 82-87 Saturday to 85-90 Sunday.
July 1-3 looks hot & very humid! Dew points may reach 80 with highs topping out at 89-93 with heat indices 97-114.
We will watch around July 4-6 for a wave of storms along a cold front.
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