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June 19, 5:20 PM Weather Forecast Update

Showers, storms, locally-heavy rainfall & severe risk......active pattern this weekend to next week.

Posted: Jun 18, 2019 3:51 PM
Updated: Jun 18, 2019 5:47 PM

SO FAR TODAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING:

We have seen a few spotty showers & t'showers mainly in Clinton County today with warm, muggy conditions & bubbling, towering, low-based cumulus clouds.  Up to 1.20" of rainfall has occurred in places in Clinton County from this rainfall today.

In this moist, tropical environment with low cloud bases with weak, weak wind fields in the lowest 10,000', but sharp directional shear, a funnel or two cannot be ruled out this evening.  If one of these touches down, it would be a landspout tornado (EF0) & could result in a random, brief tornado warning.  Most of these just tend to dissipate as the rain falls around them.

Any of these showers/t'showers will dissipate with time this evening followed by mostly cloudy skies & patchy dense fog tonight.

Lows will vary from upper 50s in the lake breeze front in the northwest to 60s to near 70 elsewhere.

A couple of isolated showers & t'showers may pop late, late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Then some scattered showers & storms will increase through the morning & into the afternoon with an isolated severe storm possible in muggy, tropical airmass with highs 79-84.  There will also be a lack of wind, which will make it feel a bit stifling.

Isolated severe storm threat is largely brief, weak tornado with low-level shear with low LCL along frontal boundary.

Severe risk will increase some in the evening as the core of the rather deep low pressure system passes through.  Wind fields when then increase at low levels with a broader scale of lift.  Overall wind will also increase over the area with gusts to 20 mph.  A couple/few severe storms are possible.

Best severe risk is south of our area where parameters suggest ENHANCED RISK, while parameters in our southern counties suggest SLIGHT with MARGINAL elsewhere.

There is a corridor of pretty substantial tornado risk actually over southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana & western Kentucky.  It is quite a strong low pressure system for the time of year.

Right now, SPC has MARGINAL area-wide & SLIGHT south of our area.

WEDNESDAY EVENING-THURSDAY MIDDAY:

The most widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday evening-night with some of that severe risk initially winding down by midnight.

Windy, rainy conditions will be the story after that.

Rainfall looks to exit Thursday morning with temperatures 59-65 through midday with strong northwest winds to 35 mph & lows of low, gray, dreary clouds.

Total rainfall looks to run 0.60-1.30" with this system

THURSDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY:

Gradual clearing will occur in the afternoon & evening with highs eventually reaching 67-75 with northwest winds at 20-35 mph decreasing to 15-25 mph by evening.

As quickly as we see the stratocumulus/cumulus clouds completely clear, high & mid clouds will move right back in Thursday evening-night as front very quickly begins to lift back northward as a warm front.

So, lows will level off at 55-62 with a light south wind developing overnight.  Some temperatures may even rise a few degrees late.

Friday looks humid with highs 80-86 with partly cloudy skies & southwest winds 15-25 mph.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:

An MCS or a complex of storms will ride the warm frontal zone south & southeastward into & through the area Friday night-Saturday morning.  Some severe weather is possible (wind).

On this complex's outflow boundary, some new storms may fire southwest of our area Saturday.  The boundary should then move back northward with a few more storms possible Saturday afternoon-evening.  Highs will run 85-90 with heat indices 91-100 after a warm Friday night at 67-72.

A very well-developed MCV with front in the area could bring round of storms Sunday afternoon-evening.  Severe risk is possible.  Main threat is wind, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Highs will run 85-90 with heat indices 92-100.

Storms are possible Monday PM & then again Wednesday & Thursday of next week.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 35712

Reported Deaths: 2207
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion10037594
Lake3806202
Allen174371
Cass15927
Elkhart143529
St. Joseph132035
Hamilton118094
Hendricks118074
Johnson1120110
Madison59761
Porter55329
Clark52841
Bartholomew52238
Howard43734
LaPorte43624
Tippecanoe4214
Shelby39822
Jackson3942
Delaware38740
Hancock34928
Floyd32140
Boone31835
Vanderburgh2902
Morgan28324
Noble25121
Montgomery24417
Clinton2401
White2389
Decatur23031
Grant22123
Dubois2053
Harrison19622
Henry18412
Vigo1758
Greene17125
Dearborn17021
Monroe17012
Warrick16728
Kosciusko1661
Lawrence16524
Marshall1472
Miami1411
Putnam1377
Orange13122
Jennings1314
Scott1223
Franklin1158
Ripley1086
LaGrange1022
Daviess9516
Carroll933
Steuben872
Wayne865
Wabash802
Fayette797
Newton7810
Jasper701
Jay530
Clay522
Washington511
Rush503
Randolph503
Fulton501
Pulaski490
Jefferson471
Whitley443
DeKalb431
Starke393
Sullivan371
Owen341
Perry340
Huntington342
Brown331
Benton320
Wells320
Knox310
Blackford272
Tipton261
Crawford240
Fountain222
Switzerland210
Spencer211
Adams201
Gibson182
Parke180
Posey160
Ohio130
Warren121
Martin120
Vermillion100
Union90
Pike60
Unassigned0175
West Lafayette
Clear
83° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 86°
Kokomo
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 82°
Rensselaer
Scattered Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 83°
Fowler
Scattered Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 83°
Williamsport
Clear
80° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 82°
Crawfordsville
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 78°
Frankfort
Broken Clouds
82° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 84°
Delphi
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 81°
Monticello
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 81°
Logansport
Scattered Clouds
79° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 81°
Isolated storms & humid......
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