June 19, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest weather forecast update.

Posted: Jun 19, 2020 2:09 PM
Updated: Jun 19, 2020 9:56 PM

The extreme heat in eastern Canada to Northern New England is impressive!

Parts of Maine saw 100 today.  Caribou hit 96, the hottest temperature since 1977.

For the state of Maine, today was the hottest day since 1935.

In New Brunswick, all-time records are falling with temperatures near 100!

Halifax, Nova Scotia reached 91.  Even on Prince Edward Island, temperatures reached 90.

If not for the cut-off upper low in the Mid-Atlantic & Southeast, you can imagine the extent of the hot ridge from eastern Canada to the Gulf Coast.

There is also another hot ridge developing in the West.

Given this & all of the Saharan dust storm air moving toward the Caribbean, Gulf & Southeastern half of the U.S. convection & tropical development will be hampered.

So, more hot, dry weather is ahead for our area.

However we do have some needed rainfall in the forecast in the nearer term (see below after highs today & current dry weather statistics):

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Lows this morning were 59-64 with highs this afternoon at 87-95, though most of the area was 90-95.  Grissom (89) & Crawfordsville Airport near New Market (87) were the only two observation sites that did not.

Despite the heat, the humidity was still low, however.  Dew points were in the 50s.

Dirty air, high pollen & stagnant, calm conditions have been rough for those with asthma & allergies today.

NOAA U.S. Drought Monitor now has most of the viewing area in Abnormally Dry or D0 conditions with data taken on June 16.

Any area in green is very dry with precipitation anomalies over the past 30 days.  Light green is very dry.

You can see pockets in the area that have only seen 0.50" of rainfall in 30 days.  This, combined with the abundant sun, strong winds & very low dew point have meant the highest evaporation in the month of June since 2012.

The storage of water in the subsoil is now being depleted.

With partly cloudy skies & south-southwest winds 10-20 mph, highs Saturday will run 91-96.  However, dew points will still be quite low at 58-64, which will keep indices at/near the actual air temperature.  This, after lows of 65-71 Saturday morning.

Storms may be severe in Missouri, Iowa & Illinois Saturday-Saturday evening.

However, they do look to weaken as they move into our area Saturday night. 

It is not out of the question that they will still be severe & vigorous along I-57, then hit a brick wall & collapse rapidly in our area.

This is due to sudden rise in CINH or capping with eastward extent & the dry air in the area.

Interestingly, this is bit of a set-up for a heat burst or two as storms collapse.

The storms will tend to collapse into the dry air & as all of that rainfall evaporates that air will heat up on the way down. 

This leads to isolated instances of a rise in temperature & drop in humidity as the storms collapse.

We will watch it.

It then appears that much of the storm development Sunday will be east of our area with partly cloudy skies (lows in the morning 71-75).

Dew points will drop back down in the afternoon after reaching near 68 Sunday morning.  They should drop back to 57-63 by midday-afternoon with wind shift to the west at 10-20 mph.

It will be a hot one, as well at 88-93 for highs.

Many of you will not see any rainfall through Sunday & areas that do will see it evaporate rapidly Sunday.

Monday is currently the best potential of rainfall for the viewing area as a while until a week from this Saturday.

A very pronounced MCV from Sunday severe storms Iowa to Kansas will pivot eastward, reaching Illinois Monday.

Ahead of this MCV, temperatures are projected at 88-94 with dew points reaching 68-73 with south-southwest winds 15-25 mph.

A complex of storms (MCS) with a squall line is possible with the risk of sporadic severe gusts.  Lack of better shear & wind fields, as well as weaker lapse rate precludes a bigger severe risk.

SLIGHT RISK parameters are currently projected (wind).

Some scattered showers & storms are possible Tuesday, mainly in the p.m.

A few showers/storms are possible Wednesday with otherwise partly cloudy skies & a west to northwest wind.

Thursday looks dry.

Front begins to move back northward as a warm front.  So, after a Thursday of low humidity, Friday will turn humid late with some showers & storms later in the day.

After Monday, the next day with widespread storms would be Saturday, June 27 OR Sunday, June 28.  There is a question as to which day the cold front, upper trough & cold front will pass (& thus when storms will occur).

It does appear that a line of storms with severe weather risk is possible (main threat wind).  Highs of 91-95 are possible with heat indices of 97-106.

Storms tend to fire not only with the trough, front, etc., but with an MCV from outbreak of severe weather Minnesota, Iowa & the Dakotas the day before.

The first half of July averages hotter than normal.

The first half of July also averages drier than normal.

The latter half of July shows an overall trend of mean temperatures above normal for much of the Lower 48.

The latter half of July features more normal to slightly-below normal rainfall.  However, the month as a whole will end up below normal rainfall-wise overall.

Temperatures look above normal for August overall.

However, they look below normal in the Northern Plains & Northern Rockies.

The tropics should ramp up in August once the Saharan dust pushes out & disperses.

It looks wetter & wetter in the Plains & South.

Here, there is a trend to bring normal rainfall, compared to consistent trends of below normal rainfall for the month of August for months.

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