June 19, 1 AM Weather Forecast Update

Severe weather risk with hot, muggy to oppressive weather, brief, potent cool-down.....then more heat & storms....

Posted: Jun 18, 2021 11:55 PM
Updated: Jun 19, 2021 1:16 AM

Widespread upper 90s to lower 100s occurred from Kansas to Missouri, Illinois & western Indiana today.

Some of our southwestern areas saw the hottest weather since 2012.

Heat indices reached as high as 110 there.  Even northward it was very hot, for example, heat index reached 105 at Remington.

Supercells & multi-cells will continue to blossom over the viewing area over the next few hours & back-build northwestward.  Hail, wind & isolated brief tornado threat will exist, as well as locally-heavy rainfall.

Storms in Iowa & Illinois will congeal into bowing complex of storms & impact the area after 3 a.m. with largely wind & risk of an embedded brief tornado or two.  Isolated hail is possible in the complex of storms.

Locally-heavy, flash flood-producing rainfall is possible with some spots receiving +2.5", even +3" of rainfall.

Severe weather risk will be with us to around 6 a.m.

After that, clouds thin & eventually cumulus re-develop with hot, oppressive conditions developing.

Winds will be strong from the southwest & highs should reach near 90 to as high as 96 with heat indices near 100 to as high as near 110.

In the boiling instability, a few scattered storms are possible 5 p.m.-3 a.m.  These will pose risk of some severe weather, mainly wind/hail with that severe risk in the 5 p.m.-12 a.m. time frame.

Coverage will not be that high though due to some capping issues & not the best convergence along boundary in the area.

SPC has MARGINAL RISK OF severe weather for Saturday late.

As for Sunday, after some patchy for & 70-75 in the morning, it looks partly cloudy, hot & oppressive with highs 91-97 with heat indices near 100 to near 110.

Winds will be strong from the southwest.

We looks very capped Sunday for storm development.

However, potential MCV from Iowa is a storm trigger if it comes to fruition.

Should that occur & break cap, we will need to increase storm coverage well above 25%.

Even in a few isolated storms Sunday, any could produce severe weathe rin the boiling instability & if the MCV comes to fruition, severe risk will be higher/more widespread (like SLIGHT to ENHANCED).

Any severe risk would tend to be in the 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. time frame.

Right now SPC severe weather risk is MARGINAL.

Note the blow-up of severe weather Wisconsin to Iowa to Missouri Sunday evening.

That is a strong cold front & upper trough that will push the hot ridge well to the west briefly & cool us down nicely.

With that strong cold front & upper trough, line of storms is possible Sunday night-early Monday morning in the 2 a.m.-5 a.m. time frame right now.

Main threat is wind. 

Parameters look ENHANCED over Iowa, Wisconsin & Illinois & SLIGHT here.

We will monitor & await official SPC forecasts.

Monday may feature morning showers, then nice clearing trend with lowering humidity & northwest wind in the midday to afternoon.

Highs of 77-84 are expected with lows 53-59 Monday night.

Tuesday looks nice with sunshine, nice north wind to 32 mph & highs 74-80 & lows Tuesday night 48-54.

Hot upper ridge will re-expand & surface warm front should approaching Wednesday with increasing clouds, northeast wind becoming east & highs 77-82.  Lows of 57-63 are expected Wednesday night.

The low, low humidity will continue Thursday, but it will be warmer with wind shift to the southwest & highs 86-93, followed by lows of 65-70 Thursday night.

Friday looks humid & windy from the southwest with highs 88-95 & heat indices 94-100.

It does appear that a complex of severe storms may impast the area in the "Ring of Fire" as ridge begins to contract with upper trough & surface cold front arrival most likely Saturday (though possibly Friday.....there is some uncertainty on exact timing between these two days).

Current analysis suggests boiling heat & 90s next Saturday with the round of severe storms in the afternoon with mainly a wind threat.

Nice shot of cooler, less humid air should follow with some pretty nice weather June 27-July 1 with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s & lows in the 50s.

Note the projected temperatures at 1 p.m. on Sunday, June 28 (day after storms) at 78-82 (with likely dew points in the 50s).

However, 90s & higher humidity may return by July 3 or 4.

Horseshoe hot upper ridging returns & dominates near July 4 to mid-July.  90s to 100s again are possible.

Horseshoe ridge pattern may occur frequently right to late July, while the Southeast, southern Plains to Mexico are cooler.

British Columbia also looks cooler than normal.

Horseshoe ridge pattern continue at times in August, but gradually splits into two pieces:  one British Columbia through the Rockies to the Southwest & over eastern Canada through New England.

So, we may see very hot weather for a while in August before it really subsides & gets cooler in late August.

Cooler conditions occur in the Plains to Texas & over the Southeast.

Overall pattern July-August is for drier, droughty weather eastern Nebraska & Iowa through  Indiana to New England, while the Northern Plains to Minnesota catch up on rainfall deficits.

Also, the Southeast will continue to be very wet from lots of tropical activity.

We will monitor "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Riders", derecho risk & the ropical for welcome rainfall here to help with hot, dry conditions.

September continues to trend a bit cooler than normal here, while western Canada & the Rockies bake & New England to the eastern Great Lakes, Ontario continue to be hot.

The Central Plains, central & western Corn Belt, parts of Texas & the Lower Mississippi Valley into the South will be cooler.

We look to be visited frequently by pleasant surface Canadian highs with northwest & northeast flow, resulting in drier regime here.  This will keep the main area of heavy rainfall & storminess lined up in the Plains, Rockies & Southwest.

Although, overall pattern is drier in the Southeast, that could easily change given the expected active hurricane season. 

West Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 91°
Kokomo
Cloudy
81° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 87°
Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 88°
Fowler
Partly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 91°
Williamsport
Partly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 91°
Crawfordsville
Partly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 91°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 91°
Delphi
Mostly Cloudy
85° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 91°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
85° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 91°
Logansport
Mostly Cloudy
82° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 87°
The air will still be pretty bad this weekend with intense, humidity & a few storms.
WLFI Temps
WLFI Planner

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 763688

Reported Deaths: 13963
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1048591803
Lake567611029
Allen42619698
St. Joseph37234568
Hamilton37098426
Elkhart29678469
Tippecanoe23321230
Vanderburgh23086404
Porter19530327
Johnson18734391
Hendricks17994321
Madison13446345
Clark13429198
Vigo12779255
LaPorte12528224
Monroe12474178
Delaware11087198
Howard10599237
Kosciusko9729123
Hancock8699149
Bartholomew8228157
Warrick8020157
Floyd7961181
Grant7330181
Wayne7221201
Boone7137105
Morgan6878142
Marshall6320116
Dubois6255118
Cass6083111
Dearborn597878
Noble595290
Henry5939111
Jackson514077
Shelby508297
Lawrence4890127
Gibson460596
Montgomery453692
Clinton452355
DeKalb451185
Harrison449476
Whitley413945
Huntington411581
Steuben409560
Miami403773
Jasper399355
Knox387091
Putnam383462
Wabash366983
Adams350456
Ripley350471
Jefferson340386
White338854
Daviess3084100
Wells301981
Greene292085
Decatur291492
Fayette285864
Posey280235
Scott277458
LaGrange276772
Clay272548
Washington252037
Randolph246283
Jennings237549
Spencer237231
Fountain233150
Starke229759
Owen220959
Sullivan218643
Fulton207445
Jay202832
Carroll196122
Orange190556
Perry189039
Vermillion179544
Rush176927
Franklin171635
Tipton171447
Parke153116
Pike140934
Blackford137732
Pulaski122848
Newton122136
Benton108915
Brown105443
Crawford104816
Martin92515
Warren87515
Switzerland8308
Union73510
Ohio58111
Unassigned0428

COVID-19 Important links and resources

As the spread of COVID-19, or as it's more commonly known as the coronavirus continues, this page will serve as your one-stop for the resources you need to stay informed and to keep you and your family safe. CLICK HERE

Closings related to the prevention of the COVID-19 can be found on our Closings page.

Community Events