Widespread upper 90s to lower 100s occurred from Kansas to Missouri, Illinois & western Indiana today.
Some of our southwestern areas saw the hottest weather since 2012.
Heat indices reached as high as 110 there. Even northward it was very hot, for example, heat index reached 105 at Remington.
Supercells & multi-cells will continue to blossom over the viewing area over the next few hours & back-build northwestward. Hail, wind & isolated brief tornado threat will exist, as well as locally-heavy rainfall.
Storms in Iowa & Illinois will congeal into bowing complex of storms & impact the area after 3 a.m. with largely wind & risk of an embedded brief tornado or two. Isolated hail is possible in the complex of storms.
Locally-heavy, flash flood-producing rainfall is possible with some spots receiving +2.5", even +3" of rainfall.
Severe weather risk will be with us to around 6 a.m.
After that, clouds thin & eventually cumulus re-develop with hot, oppressive conditions developing.
Winds will be strong from the southwest & highs should reach near 90 to as high as 96 with heat indices near 100 to as high as near 110.
In the boiling instability, a few scattered storms are possible 5 p.m.-3 a.m. These will pose risk of some severe weather, mainly wind/hail with that severe risk in the 5 p.m.-12 a.m. time frame.
Coverage will not be that high though due to some capping issues & not the best convergence along boundary in the area.
SPC has MARGINAL RISK OF severe weather for Saturday late.
As for Sunday, after some patchy for & 70-75 in the morning, it looks partly cloudy, hot & oppressive with highs 91-97 with heat indices near 100 to near 110.
Winds will be strong from the southwest.
We looks very capped Sunday for storm development.
However, potential MCV from Iowa is a storm trigger if it comes to fruition.
Should that occur & break cap, we will need to increase storm coverage well above 25%.
Even in a few isolated storms Sunday, any could produce severe weathe rin the boiling instability & if the MCV comes to fruition, severe risk will be higher/more widespread (like SLIGHT to ENHANCED).
Any severe risk would tend to be in the 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. time frame.
Right now SPC severe weather risk is MARGINAL.
Note the blow-up of severe weather Wisconsin to Iowa to Missouri Sunday evening.
That is a strong cold front & upper trough that will push the hot ridge well to the west briefly & cool us down nicely.
With that strong cold front & upper trough, line of storms is possible Sunday night-early Monday morning in the 2 a.m.-5 a.m. time frame right now.
Main threat is wind.
Parameters look ENHANCED over Iowa, Wisconsin & Illinois & SLIGHT here.
We will monitor & await official SPC forecasts.
Monday may feature morning showers, then nice clearing trend with lowering humidity & northwest wind in the midday to afternoon.
Highs of 77-84 are expected with lows 53-59 Monday night.
Tuesday looks nice with sunshine, nice north wind to 32 mph & highs 74-80 & lows Tuesday night 48-54.
Hot upper ridge will re-expand & surface warm front should approaching Wednesday with increasing clouds, northeast wind becoming east & highs 77-82. Lows of 57-63 are expected Wednesday night.
The low, low humidity will continue Thursday, but it will be warmer with wind shift to the southwest & highs 86-93, followed by lows of 65-70 Thursday night.
Friday looks humid & windy from the southwest with highs 88-95 & heat indices 94-100.
It does appear that a complex of severe storms may impast the area in the "Ring of Fire" as ridge begins to contract with upper trough & surface cold front arrival most likely Saturday (though possibly Friday.....there is some uncertainty on exact timing between these two days).
Current analysis suggests boiling heat & 90s next Saturday with the round of severe storms in the afternoon with mainly a wind threat.
Nice shot of cooler, less humid air should follow with some pretty nice weather June 27-July 1 with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s & lows in the 50s.
Note the projected temperatures at 1 p.m. on Sunday, June 28 (day after storms) at 78-82 (with likely dew points in the 50s).
However, 90s & higher humidity may return by July 3 or 4.
Horseshoe hot upper ridging returns & dominates near July 4 to mid-July. 90s to 100s again are possible.
Horseshoe ridge pattern may occur frequently right to late July, while the Southeast, southern Plains to Mexico are cooler.
British Columbia also looks cooler than normal.
Horseshoe ridge pattern continue at times in August, but gradually splits into two pieces: one British Columbia through the Rockies to the Southwest & over eastern Canada through New England.
So, we may see very hot weather for a while in August before it really subsides & gets cooler in late August.
Cooler conditions occur in the Plains to Texas & over the Southeast.
Overall pattern July-August is for drier, droughty weather eastern Nebraska & Iowa through Indiana to New England, while the Northern Plains to Minnesota catch up on rainfall deficits.
Also, the Southeast will continue to be very wet from lots of tropical activity.
We will monitor "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Riders", derecho risk & the ropical for welcome rainfall here to help with hot, dry conditions.
September continues to trend a bit cooler than normal here, while western Canada & the Rockies bake & New England to the eastern Great Lakes, Ontario continue to be hot.
The Central Plains, central & western Corn Belt, parts of Texas & the Lower Mississippi Valley into the South will be cooler.
We look to be visited frequently by pleasant surface Canadian highs with northwest & northeast flow, resulting in drier regime here. This will keep the main area of heavy rainfall & storminess lined up in the Plains, Rockies & Southwest.
Although, overall pattern is drier in the Southeast, that could easily change given the expected active hurricane season.