June 18, 12:45 AM Update

Best rainfall coverage through Friday is Wednesday evening-night.

Posted: Jun 17, 2019 11:16 PM
Updated: Jun 18, 2019 1:24 AM

A few spotty showers/storms are possible today, otherwise it looks like partly to mostly cloudy skies & humid conditions.  With a lack of wind & highs 81-85, it will feel quite muggy.

This, after patchy dense fog this morning & a shower or two around.

A few showers & storms are possible Wednesday (after 60s & patchy dense fog in the morning) along the front.  This, with mostly cloudy skies & highs 79-85 with high humidity.

There will be considerable low-level directional shear with these spotty showers & storms along the front laid up in the area.

Low-level flow will be from the east & southeast, while stronger flow aloft will be west to west-southwest.

Wind fields in the low-levels will be weak, but the low LCLs in very humid environment with the greatest instability concentrated near the surface (up to 2000 J/kg surface CAPE in overall average ML CAPE of around 800-900 J/kg) & the steepest lapse rate in the lower few thousand feet of around 7C/km will result in relatively lower-topped convection.

There is the risk of a funnel or two &/or a brief landspout tornado.

You can see these cells on the front in a line over the area:

Main area of rainfall & some storms will pass Wednesday evening-night.

A couple severe storms are possible in our southern counties.

A corridor of SLIGHT & ENHANCED RISK is setting up south of our area along & south of I-70 to western Kentucky.

I do think the next SPC outlook will have a SLIGHT RISK upgrade & then this next one or the one after that will have an ENHANCED upgrade there.

We look to stay in MARGINAL.  SLIGHT may be shifted to as far north as I-74.

Cluster(s) of some tornadic HP supercells are possible near & south of I-70 Wednesday evening-night. 

0.60-1.30" of rainfall is possible here.

Thursday looks dry, cooler & less humid with 75-80 with skies becoming partly cloudy.

After 80s, southwest winds & high humidity Friday after warm front moves back northward, an MCS with severe weather risk is still possible Friday night-early Saturday morning.

Off & on bouts of storms with severe risk & locally-heavy rainfall will be with us Sunday & through much of next week.

We will heat up to the 80s to 90 with lows 60s & 70s with humid to muggy dew points in the 60s & 70s.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Overcast
30° wxIcon
Hi: 36° Lo: 18°
Feels Like: 23°
Kokomo
Overcast
29° wxIcon
Hi: 35° Lo: 18°
Feels Like: 19°
Rensselaer
Clear
19° wxIcon
Hi: 33° Lo: 18°
Feels Like: 19°
Fowler
Clear
19° wxIcon
Hi: 34° Lo: 17°
Feels Like: 19°
Williamsport
Overcast
31° wxIcon
Hi: 36° Lo: 18°
Feels Like: 31°
Crawfordsville
Overcast
28° wxIcon
Hi: 37° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 20°
Frankfort
Overcast
32° wxIcon
Hi: 36° Lo: 18°
Feels Like: 25°
Delphi
Overcast
28° wxIcon
Hi: 35° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 18°
Monticello
Overcast
28° wxIcon
Hi: 34° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 18°
Logansport
Overcast
28° wxIcon
Hi: 33° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 18°
Gradual warm-up ahead........
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