A few spotty showers/storms are possible today, otherwise it looks like partly to mostly cloudy skies & humid conditions. With a lack of wind & highs 81-85, it will feel quite muggy.
This, after patchy dense fog this morning & a shower or two around.
A few showers & storms are possible Wednesday (after 60s & patchy dense fog in the morning) along the front. This, with mostly cloudy skies & highs 79-85 with high humidity.
There will be considerable low-level directional shear with these spotty showers & storms along the front laid up in the area.
Low-level flow will be from the east & southeast, while stronger flow aloft will be west to west-southwest.
Wind fields in the low-levels will be weak, but the low LCLs in very humid environment with the greatest instability concentrated near the surface (up to 2000 J/kg surface CAPE in overall average ML CAPE of around 800-900 J/kg) & the steepest lapse rate in the lower few thousand feet of around 7C/km will result in relatively lower-topped convection.
There is the risk of a funnel or two &/or a brief landspout tornado.
You can see these cells on the front in a line over the area:
Main area of rainfall & some storms will pass Wednesday evening-night.
A couple severe storms are possible in our southern counties.
A corridor of SLIGHT & ENHANCED RISK is setting up south of our area along & south of I-70 to western Kentucky.
I do think the next SPC outlook will have a SLIGHT RISK upgrade & then this next one or the one after that will have an ENHANCED upgrade there.
We look to stay in MARGINAL. SLIGHT may be shifted to as far north as I-74.
Cluster(s) of some tornadic HP supercells are possible near & south of I-70 Wednesday evening-night.
0.60-1.30" of rainfall is possible here.
Thursday looks dry, cooler & less humid with 75-80 with skies becoming partly cloudy.
After 80s, southwest winds & high humidity Friday after warm front moves back northward, an MCS with severe weather risk is still possible Friday night-early Saturday morning.
Off & on bouts of storms with severe risk & locally-heavy rainfall will be with us Sunday & through much of next week.
We will heat up to the 80s to 90 with lows 60s & 70s with humid to muggy dew points in the 60s & 70s.