SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

June 18, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the hot, dry weather & the timing much more humid weather with storms.

Posted: Jun 18, 2020 4:04 PM
Updated: Jun 18, 2020 10:45 PM

June 18 & we have only had 0.58" for the month so far at the television station observation site at West Lafayette.

In addition, note the number of days above 85, the wind gusts, the number of mostly sunny days & the days with very low dew points.

It all points to flash abnormal dryness.

This tended to start about May 20 when the heat came in & began to dominate, dew points became much lower & we kept missing rainfall & storms.

Compared to last year, we have seen +3" of less rainfall than what we have seen this year for the past 30-day period.

Image courtesy of DTN:

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Other than the northern Plains/Rockies & parts of the Southeast to Upper Ohio Valley, much of the country is dominated by very warm to hot weathe r& upper ridging. 

After upper 90s to 100 in parts of the Dakotas to Minnesota yesterday, today was a record-hot day in eastern Canada & New England ith highs near 100 in places.  Very impressive inde3ed, Moosonee, Ontario hit 94 & Port Cartier, Quebec hit a record 99.  Even in New Brunswick, Fredirection hit 97 & Moncton 94. 

High at Winston-Salem, North Carolina was just 75 & Huntington, West Virginia was 73.

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After lows of 55-64 this morning over the viewing area, highs today reached 84-93 with continued low dew points.  Coolest readings continue to be in the far eastern & southern fringes over wetter soils & nearer to the upper low well east & southeast of our area (cooler with more clouds).

Grass pollen was high & air quality went downhill today.  This will be the case tomorrow & Saturday, as well (& we will only heat up more).

Highs 90-96 are expected Friday & 91-96 Saturday. 

The humidity will continue to be low both days.

There will be a lack of wind Friday, but a breeze on Saturday from the south-southwest at 10-15 mph.

It appears that a big surge in the humidity will come in Saturday evening-night & last through Sunday.

Severe storms will blow up on an MCV over Missouri & Iowa Saturday in a plume of juicy dew points & hot temperatures.

The storms will move northeastward & eastward as the MCV pivot through northern Illinois to southeastern Wisconsin.

Some severe storms may occur as far east as I-57 in eastern Illinois Saturday night, but it appears that they will weaken as they work eastward.  They will be encountering diminishing CAPE with eastward extent

Nonetheless, some showers & storms are possible Saturday night to early Sunday morning.

Thinking it that new storms that fire Sunday midday to afternoon would tend to fire east of our area.

Here, we have no effective trigger & capping with a wind shift to the west (at 15-25 mph) & modest drop in the dew points from 70-72 in the morning to 64-68 in the afternoon seems likely.

So, after some scattered rainfall in the morning, there is increasing evidence that the rest of the day will be dry with sunshine & fair weather cumulus (we may see the cumulonimbus towers in our eastern horizion as storms fire east of the area).

Severe storms Texas Panhandle to the Dakotas & Minnesota will occur Sunday afternoon-evening.  The MCV from the Kansas storms will pivot eastward, then northeastward.

This appears to be the trigger for storms Monday afternoon.  With dew points pooling back to 70s ahead of this & temperatures surging to near 91 ahead of it, I upped storm coverage to 65% for Monday PM.

MCV-induced shear & dynamics promotes SLIGHT RISK for severe Monday.  We will await SPC official outlook, however.

A wave of showers & storms is possible Tuesday with MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters.

Some storms are possible Wednesday & Thursday, but coverage looks less than Monday or Tuesday.

Some more storms are possible Friday-Sunday(June 27-29) with very warm to hot, muggy weather, followed by cooler, drier weather for a bit. 

Something to watch is this clouds of dense dust blowing off the Sahara of Africa.  Very robust dust storm will shroud the Caribbean & much of the Atlantic in dust by next weekend.

This dust will then move into the Gulf of Mexico & Southeast U.S., bringing a pale, hazy sky & beautiful sunrises & sunsets.

Some may make it as far north as the Ohio Valley.

This dust may put the kabosh on tropical development or any clusters of showers & storms in the Caribbean & Gulf.

It may actually help to anchor & strengthen a hot upper ridge over the eastern half of the U.S. to eastern Canada.

This means a stretch of hot, dry weather for the area in early July.

It will also put the brakes on the hurricane season by inhibiting good tropical development.

The first half of July is warmer than normal.

Rainfall looks below normal for the first half of July.

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Warmest day since November ahead Monday.
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