June 17, 5:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

New data is streaming in. Here is the latest.

Posted: Jun 17, 2019 4:24 PM
Updated: Jun 17, 2019 5:51 PM

TONIGHT:

Some scattered rain is possible in the south this evening, followed by a few spotty showers & storms overnight elsewhere. 

Lows will run 57 far northwest to 67 in the south & 60 to the lower 60s in Greater Lafayette. 

Patchy dense fog is likely.

TOMORROW:

With partly to mostly cloudy skies, few scattered showers & storms are possible over the area tomorrow with front draped here.  It will be warmer & muggy with highs of 81-86 with heat indices 84-91 with dew points in the 60s & 70s.  Rainfall coverage will run up to 35%.

Winds look light & variable with direction varying from northeast & east to south with front draped around.

TOMORROW NIGHT:

As any spotty showers & storms exit, patchy dense fog is possible with lows in the 60s.

WEDNESDAY:

Highs will run in the 78-85 range over the area with front draped overhead Wednesday.

You can see a few cells popping on that front in the afternoon, then some rain/thunder passes in the evening-early night.

The cluster of supercells with the greatest severe risk is shaping up near or just south of I-70 at an MCV & just ahead of the main surface low.

We will monitor.

There is MARGINAL RISK for severe for cells that pop along the front.

Note how the cells on the front in our area want to actually move WESTWARD or WEST-SOUTHWARD around flow of MCV & how the flow above them ahead of the low near St. Louis & the cold front moves EAST.

In a very moist airmass with low LCLs, a narrow, but steep low-level lapse rate & a very sharp wind shift in the lowest 5,000', these boundary will have high amount of directional low-level shear. 

However, wind fields in the lowest 10,000' will be very weak.

That lack of higher wind fields & a thicker layer of instability & higher lapse rates diminishes tornado risk.

However, with this set-up, these lower-topped, low-level sheared showers & a few showers on the front may produce an isolated funnel or two or a brief landspout EF0 tornado.

Not saying this will 100% happen, but the conditions warrant mention of it Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in MARGINAL RISK of severe weather.  I am thinking along & south of I-70 will see the upgrade to SLIGHT RISK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT & SATURDAY MORNING:

Some rainfall & a few storms are possible Wednesday night, followed by a dry Thursday with skies turning partly cloudy.  Highs will run in the 70s to around 80 with front south of our area again.

Front races back northward Friday, bathing us in warmer, humid weather with highs 80-86.

A "Ring of Fire" "Ridge Rider" will likely pass Friday night-early Saturday morning with some severe risk.

SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT:

The rest of Saturday looks drier with partly cloudy, breezy to windy, muggy conditions with highs 85-90 & heat indices 92-98.

Any storms Saturday nearby look to occur southwest of our area on outflow boundary of our night-morning MCS or complex of storms.

This boundary will migrate back northward & albeit diffuse, could still pop a storm or two here Saturday late evening-night.

SUNDAY TO MONDAY:

Round of storms with severe risk is possible Sunday afternoon-evening with highs 85-91 with heat indices 92-100 with breezy to windy conditions.

Monday late afternoon-evening MCS is possible with severe weather risk.  It may ride along & just south of outflow boundary (that will be migrating back northward again after it lays up well south of our area) from Sunday-Sunday night storm complexes.

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