June 17, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest update on surge of dangerous heat & severe storm risk...

Posted: Jun 17, 2021 9:49 PM
Updated: Jun 18, 2021 11:10 PM

We lost a lot of water today.  Dew points were in the 30s & 40s much of the day with mostly sunny skies.  With this very dry air, our temperatures are behaving like they do in the High Plains or in a steppe region with significant diurnal temperature spreads.

Lows this morning ran 47-54, followed by 85-93.  Some areas experience a 38-degree drop from yesterday high to the low lastnight, then a 43-degree rise today.

This is not common this time of year.  The same thing happened last June with a long stretch of dew points in the 30s & 40s & large diurnal temperature trends.

This core of the upper ridge brought these highs today:

108  McCook, Nebraska

108  Boone, Iowa

108  Hill City, Kansas

106  Omaha, Nebraska (Eppley Airfield)

106 Grand Island, Nebraska

106  Greely, Colorado

106  Topeka, Kansas

104  Hutchison, Kansas

102  Mason City, Iowa

102  Olathe, Kansas

102  Iowa Falls, Iowa

102  Nebraska City, Nebraska

101  St. Joseph, Missouri

101  Des Moines, Iowa

101  Ames, Iowa

100  Maryville, Missouri

99  Waterloo, Iowa

99  Moberly, Missouri

97  St. Louis, Missouri

Storms are possible Friday morning, mainly 6-8:30 a.m. & over the northeastern third of the area (Rensselaer to Logansport to Peru).

We will see how far southwest they can get. Could they build farther southwestward than just northeast third? Perhaps. However, I want to focus on the area with the BEST potential.

There is the risk of a couple severe storms with wind & hail threat with storms on the periphery of the expanding hot upper ridge & this "Ring of Fire".

The outflow boundary from those storms should surge back northward rapidly morning to early afternoon.  An isolated storm or two could fire on it.

In the storms' wake, we should heat up rapidly with southwest winds 15-30 mph with 100 southwest & 94 north & northeast.  Heat indices of around 100 to 111 are likely.

Storms should explode northwest of the area as a mixture of an evolving bowing line & some supercells.

Threat would be corridors of damaging wind & a couple downbursts along with isolated large hail & an isolated brief tornado or two.

These would tend to impact the area 9 p.m.-1 a.m., but if the back end backbuilds & trains over the area, risk of severe weather may last until 5 a.m. Saturday morning & areas of flash flooding could then evolve.

ENHANCED RISK for severe weather is up for this period.  This is the highest severe weather risk for the viewing area since August 2020.

As for Saturday, it is still hot with 90-96 with heat indices 94-104, it just won't be as bad.

Scattered storms are possible with 45% coverage.

Severe weather is possible in the afternoon-evening with large hail & downburst risk with supercells & clusters of multi-cells & supercells possible.

Sunday is trending drier & quite capped with highs in the 90s & heat indices 100 to 108.  The 100-degree line should stay western & southwestern Illinois & southwestward, it appears at the moment.

I would like to keep 25% coverage of storms for the time being.

Line of storms with severe weather risk is expected with strong upper trough & cold front putting a big dent in the ridge & then pushing it westward.

Parameters suggest SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK Monday (though there is some new indications of it being more Sunday night).

This front & upper trough will push likely either Tropical Storm or very minimal (barely Category 1) Hurricane Claudette away from impact our area at all.

That said, Tuesday looks windy & much cooler with sunshine, northwest to then north winds to 35 mph & highs only 74-81 (coolest northwest with lake breeze front).

Lows of 47-54 are likely Tuesday night.

With lots of sunshine, highs 78-84 are likely Wednesday, followed by 52-57 Wednesday night.  Winds look very light from the northeast to east.

Thursday looks partly cloudy, then mostly sunny (as warm front moves through) & hotter, but not humid with highs 85-90 with wind turn to the southwest.

Friday looks hot & windy with southwest winds to 35 mph, high humidity & highs 90-95 with heat indices of 95-102.

Saturday may feature complex of severe storms in the "Ring of Fire" with highs in the 90s & heat indices in the 100s.

The more we can keep these "Ring of Fire" complexes coming, the more we can stave off drought!

West Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
17° wxIcon
Hi: 26° Lo: 15°
Feels Like: 17°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
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Hi: 26° Lo: 15°
Feels Like: 18°
Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
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Hi: 24° Lo: 12°
Feels Like: 18°
Fowler
Partly Cloudy
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Hi: 26° Lo: 13°
Feels Like: 17°
Williamsport
Partly Cloudy
18° wxIcon
Hi: 27° Lo: 14°
Feels Like: 18°
Crawfordsville
Partly Cloudy
18° wxIcon
Hi: 28° Lo: 15°
Feels Like: 18°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
18° wxIcon
Hi: 26° Lo: 14°
Feels Like: 18°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
18° wxIcon
Hi: 26° Lo: 15°
Feels Like: 18°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
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Hi: 25° Lo: 16°
Feels Like: 19°
Logansport
Partly Cloudy
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Hi: 25° Lo: 15°
Feels Like: 19°
A very cold morning followed by a cloudy and cold afternoon
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