Mean temperatures have average much above normal since that record-breaking freeze in mid-May:
Note the below normal rainfall anomalies in all, but the eastern, southeastern, southern & southwestern frings of the viewing area. Since May 17, there is a good chunk of the area that has had less than 1.50".
However, biggest problem has been with the unusually low dew points for June & the unusually strong non-t'storm winds for the time of year. You combine this with the heat & the greatest number of 90s days since 2012, & you lose tremendous amounts of water from the soils, as well as rivers, lakes & streams.
Also, 8 of the last 11 days have been mostly sunny to sunny.
We are storing a great deal from a very wet winter, but these steppe-like extreme dew points are depleting reserves quickly.
There are several pockets that have only seen less than 1" since May 17.
When you observe the high temperatures today, note how the hottest readings are over the driest soils!
That includes our station site where the grass is browning & crunchy!
The hot, strengthening upper ridge is also making for stagnation as pollution is no mixed out. Air quality alerts are up for multiple areas in the Midwest & Great Lakes (mainly in larger metro areas).
We look dry & hot with sun, high grass pollen & dirty air to Saturday.
The humidity looks low through Saturday.
However, it will surge Saturday night-Sunday.
The hottest days are Friday & Saturday.
With that, some storms are possible Sunday with 50% coverage as apparent MCV (from Saturday storms in Iowa & Missouri) pivots through.
MARGINAL RISK severe weather parameters show up in the area.
A round of storms is possible Monday afternoon-evening, followed by another round Tuesday & another possible Wednesday.
All of these have MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters for severe weather.
It will be hot & humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices mid 90s to as high as 106.
The storm track should shift southwest & south of our area by Friday of next week & a bit cooler & less humid air will move in for a bit.
There will be some corridors of +2" of rainfall that add up with the Sunday-Thursday storm potential.
After dry & cooler days Friday & Saturday, higher humidity, hotter & stormy weather should return Sunday, June 28.
AO is the biggest larger-scale temperature driver in the overall Northern Hemisphere pattern for the next several weeks. MJO is not as much of a big influencer, nor is the PNA.
Overall, above normal temperatures dominate Midwest, Great Lakes to New England with cooler weather in the West & parts of Texas.
Below normal rainfall should tend to dominate from parts of the Corn Belt & then through New England.
August continues to trend warmer than normal with cooler than normal temperatures most likely in parts of the Rockies & then in parts of Texas.
August is also still trending below normal rainfall-wise.
Tropics are still the wildcard for us.