June 16, 8 PM Weather Forecast Update

Surge of intense heat to severe weather risk to brief cool-down then another surge of heat...

Posted: Jun 16, 2021 6:30 PM
Updated: Jun 16, 2021 7:56 PM

June 2021 has been a hot one so far.  In fact, it is the hottest June since 2012 with the highest temperature since 2012 seen at Greater Lafayette with 98. 

High temperatures have been especially hot the past 7 days:

The month of June so far max temp mean anomalies:

Since mid-May rainfall overall has been running to half of normal:

Widespread drought is occurring northwest, north & northeast of our area with pockets of Abnormal Dryness.

Streamflow is running below normal over the area for the time of year (golden circles) & much-below normal on the Kankakee (rust color).

With the low, low dew points & recent occurrence of temperatures near 100, soil moisture anomalies are developing in the area & are increasing.

The historic, record drought is in the West, extending into the Northern Plains.  One big thing in our summer outlook was the extreme, record fire season in the West expected & this is unfortunately coming to fruition.

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Lows this morning were comfortable at 51-54, while today has featured bone-dry air with dew points dropping to 37-49 with highs 82-88 over much of the area.  Exception is northern Newton & Jasper counties where the lake breeze front kept highs at 77-80 there.

With clear skies & a light wind, lows tonight will be cool at 51-54 as temperatures fall rapidly in the dry air with clear skies.

Tomorrow looks mostly sunny to sunny & very warm to hot with highs 86-92, but it will feel like 85-92 due to the very dry air.  Winds will be southwest at 3-7 mph.

The historic heat wave in the West will expand eastward.

On its periphery, a few clusters of storms will pop in the "Ring of Fire" west of us tonight-tomorrow.  We look dry with low dew points though.

On the periphery of the extreme heat with high dew points pooling, a "Ring of Fire" complex of severe storms, evolving into a well-organized bow should track from northwestern Iowa to northern Ohio (as subtle shortwave overtops the hot upper ridge).

Here, this could bring round of severe storms with wind threat (some gusts +60 mph) Friday morning north of US 24 in the 6-7:30 a.m. time frame. 

Gusty outflow boundary may make it down to 28, then the boundary should surge back northward as strong southwest wind & surge of very intense heat overspreads the area.

By Friday afternoon, skies should be clearing & temperatures should reach 95-100 with heat indices of 101-112.

It may be a bit cooler in the north at 89-93 with heat indices of 97-103.

Another shortwave & cold front flattening out northeast top of ridge should fire new storms in the late afternoon amidst boiling instability with those very hot temperatures & high dew points.

Line of storms with wind threat (+60 mph gusts) & isolated large hail is possible in the 5-9 p.m. time frame in the viewing area.

Downburst threat & isolated large hail is there due to boiling heat & instability.  Some longer-duration corridors of damaging winds are possible in bows due to forcing as strong mid-level wind fields overspread the area with the shortwave & surface cold front.

There is a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather per SPC for the area Friday (north AM, entire area PM). 

Parameters support eventual upgrade to ENHANCED RISK within the SLIGHT RISK zone.

This will likely be our first convective watch of the season issued by SPC.  This would be record-latest (data back to 1972) for the first Severe T'Storm or Tornado Watch of a year issued. 

The latest on record for the area is June 17, 1992 (Tornado Watch). 

The earliest is January 2, 2006 (Severe T'Storm Watch).

A storm or two is possible Saturday as cold front & outflow boundary from all of the storms will move back northward.  Highs of 88-96 are likely with heat indices of 91-100.

A "Ring of Fire" storm complex may clip our far northeast Sunday with 90s over the area, but another line of storms with severe weather risk may impact the area Monday with 90s.

Meanwhile tropical storm or hurricane will likely make a landfall around eastern Texas or Louisiana late in the weekend. Our cold front Monday will help to pick it up & whisk it up into northern Alabama to North Carolina.

Tuesday-Wednesday look cooler & less humid with highs in the 79-85 range with lows 54-61.

However, INTENSE heat is expected at the end of next week with 90s to 100 & even hotter weather ahead.   It looks dry until one of those "Ring of Fire" complexes impacts us with a wind threat perhaps around June 26.

These "Ring of Fire" severe weather episodes will be helpful in keeping the worst of the drought at bay for our area.

West Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
86° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 92°
Kokomo
Cloudy
82° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 91°
Rensselaer
Mostly Cloudy
86° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 89°
Fowler
Partly Cloudy
86° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 92°
Williamsport
Partly Cloudy
87° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 94°
Crawfordsville
Partly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 91°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
84° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 91°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
85° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 91°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
85° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 91°
Logansport
Mostly Cloudy
82° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 87°
The air will still be pretty bad this weekend with intense, humidity & a few storms.
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Cases: 763688

Reported Deaths: 13963
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1048591803
Lake567611029
Allen42619698
St. Joseph37234568
Hamilton37098426
Elkhart29678469
Tippecanoe23321230
Vanderburgh23086404
Porter19530327
Johnson18734391
Hendricks17994321
Madison13446345
Clark13429198
Vigo12779255
LaPorte12528224
Monroe12474178
Delaware11087198
Howard10599237
Kosciusko9729123
Hancock8699149
Bartholomew8228157
Warrick8020157
Floyd7961181
Grant7330181
Wayne7221201
Boone7137105
Morgan6878142
Marshall6320116
Dubois6255118
Cass6083111
Dearborn597878
Noble595290
Henry5939111
Jackson514077
Shelby508297
Lawrence4890127
Gibson460596
Montgomery453692
Clinton452355
DeKalb451185
Harrison449476
Whitley413945
Huntington411581
Steuben409560
Miami403773
Jasper399355
Knox387091
Putnam383462
Wabash366983
Adams350456
Ripley350471
Jefferson340386
White338854
Daviess3084100
Wells301981
Greene292085
Decatur291492
Fayette285864
Posey280235
Scott277458
LaGrange276772
Clay272548
Washington252037
Randolph246283
Jennings237549
Spencer237231
Fountain233150
Starke229759
Owen220959
Sullivan218643
Fulton207445
Jay202832
Carroll196122
Orange190556
Perry189039
Vermillion179544
Rush176927
Franklin171635
Tipton171447
Parke153116
Pike140934
Blackford137732
Pulaski122848
Newton122136
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Brown105443
Crawford104816
Martin92515
Warren87515
Switzerland8308
Union73510
Ohio58111
Unassigned0428

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