After we had trouble getting the rainfall coverage beyond 45% overnight & this morning, the entire area is being dominated by rainfall now (with some thunder & lightning).
With the rainfall expected today & tonight, Flash Flood Watch is up for part of the area.
1-3" of rainfall is likely by early Sunday morning.
Here is the Flash Flood Watch up graphically. Note the three tan-colored counties in Missouri. That is a HIGH WIND WARNING associated with a sharp pressure drop & rise from an MCV. That MCV will play a factor in our weather later today (see below).
We saw so many towering severe storms over such a large area in the Plains lastnight, the surface pressure drop to an extent to form this spiral or comma-shaped small low pressure where the shear, dynamics, pressure, etc. are all altered from it.
There is a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather along & south of a Pine Village to Lafayette to Frankfort line & southward with MARGINAL RISK elsewhere in the viewing area. This is for later today.
Rainfall & embedded storms will continue through afternoon.
Then, a potent MCV will pivot along the I-70 corridor.
As it moves through, the dynamics will increase & the shear will go up here & surface pressures will see another drop. With this pressure drop, some localized winds may gust to 45 mph anyway, outside of any storm (gusts during the day overall will run 20-30 mph).
Combine this with some cold air loft & despite temperatures in the 70s, a couple isolated severe storms may occur (wind, hail, brief tornado). These would occur generally in the 5:30-7:30 p.m. time frame with the best potential in the SLIGHT RISK area. Best overall severe weather risk is just south of our area, but we may still get a couple of severe storms out of it south of Route 18.
After that passes there is narrow break of dry weather in the roughly 8:30 p.m.-12 a.m. time frame with warm, muggy conditions with temperatures around 70-75 & dew points 68-72 with south-southwest winds 10-20 mph.
Showers & storms are possible after midnight. An isolated severe storm or two is possible, mainly in the south.
A couple showers & storms are possible tomorrow, otherwise we looks to have a mix of clouds & sun with highs near 80 to the mid 80s with humid conditions. Southern Fountain & Montgomery counties have a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather (isolated severe storm).
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