June 15, 11:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Storms Overnight

Posted: Jun 15, 2019 11:42 PM
Updated: Jun 16, 2019 1:33 AM

It is an El Nino summer with the Atlantic & Pacific now in cold phases along with a very quiet sun, which is leading to this wetter, cooler pattern when it looked like we'd break out of it for a few weeks in June.  This reminds me of the 1950, 1957, 1958, 1979, 1993, 1996 & 2008, 2009 spring & summers.

Soils were the driest they had been since Fall when just prior to this rainfall & significant strides were made in planting.  Many have been able to get the crop planted, albeit after early June deadlines.  Warmer weather has helped with several 80s to 90 days in the viewing area, but the recent chill has been a set-back. 

We need drying, then consistent, but not heavy, rainfall & lots of warmth (but not intense heat) to get this crop really, really going strong.

There is warmth ahead, but not torrid heat, but high humidity with warm nights, which will cause a rapid acceleration in growth.  However, we have another installment of a wet, stormy pattern in late June ahead.


Speaking of stormy..............

It was a very active evening around the Indianapolis to Muncie areas & south & southwestward.

Multiple reports of damage from tornadoes were received by NWS with many other reports of RFD, FFD wind damage in supercells & straight-line wind damage from some nodes, bows & line segments.

There as a very impressive corridor of helicity, shear & differential heating (from 80s to 70) along warm front in that southern Indiana zone.  Tornado parameters reached a threshold of potential strong, EF3 tornado risk with longer track.

NWS survey teams will be fanning out Sunday over multiple counties from south-southeast of Terre Haute to north & south of Bloomington to Indianapolis metro, southward to Rush & Decatur counties.

We saw showers & storms reach Fountain, Montgomery to far southeastern Tippecanoe to Howard counties from this round, but none farther northward.  This gave the Taste of Tippecanoe in downtown Lafayette, an extra couple hours of dry time in already-expected 3.5- to 4-hour dry time mid-evening to tonight.  6:30 to present (11:30 p.m.) is still dry with warm, muggy conditions & some fog around.

On tail-end of all of the severe storms earlier (chunk of Tornado Watch left) to our south & southeast, new cells are bubbling up now as far northwest as southern Fountain & Montgomery counties.  These are occurring on warm front & outflow boundary.  They are on the move northeastward.

Meanwhile, bow of severe storms with damaging winds is racing through central Illinois east & southeastward with Severe T'Storm Watch.

There is still one Tornado Warning for the Cincinnati metro, followed by lots of severe storms to our northwest.

Flash Flood Watch is still up for part of the area.

So far, 0.25" or slightly less in the north to as much as 2.21" in the south, has fallen today.  Greater Lafayette gauges show 0.42-0.84" of rainfall.

The highest total in the area so far is 2.21" southeast of New Ross, Montgomery County with the lightest total at 0.14" at Morocco.

Bow will move east & southeastward, new cells should fire on outflow boundary/warm front & new storms should pass through our area overnight to early Sunday morning.

A couple/few embedded severe storms are possible.  Main threat is wind.

Timing is generally 1-5 a.m.

As for Sunday, much of the day is dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies, muggy conditions & highs 81-85.

However, a few late-day & evening storms are possible, mainly in the southern part of the viewing area.

A few showers & storms are possible Sunday night from an MCV pivoting northeastward through the area.  This MCV will be the by-product of all of the heavy, locally-severe storms south & southwest of our area during the day.

There will be multiple, large complexes of torrential, severe storms over Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas to Arkansas & Missouri tonight through Sunday night.  MCSs & MCCs, there will be very tall & be over large areas.

There will be such a massive surface pressure drop from all of these (& gravity waves may be generated as the tops of the complexes poke through the tropopause or top of the troposphere, creating waves from like a turtle's head popping up out of the water to get air) that all of the complexes may from a low pressure & they may all begin to pivot around each other. 

As the new low pressure pivots northeastward, just southwest of the MCV that will pivot through Sunday night from all of the former storms in Missouri, southern Illinois, Kentucky, Arkansas & southern Indiana, new storms look like they may fire Monday evening-night.

They would occur all with this feature, which will actually pull the warm front back northward, putting us in the warm & mugginess.

Timing of showers & storms with some isolated severe risk would be 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. Monday evening-night to early Tuesday morning

After we dry out for a bit, showers & storms return late Wednesday-Thursday, followed by active pattern with off & on storms next week with muggy conditions & highs dominated by the 80s with lows in the 60s to 70.  A day or two in the June 24-July 1 period may see 88-92 for highs with heat indices 96-107.

Supercell Composite Parameter depicts severe risk in a "Ridge Rider" pattern.

Severe weather & locally-heavy rainfall are likely.

I think a few of days in early to mid-July will run 91-95 as an increasingly hot, drier pattern develops (with temperatures overall tending to run consistently above normal.

However, I think it will turn much wetter & a bit cooler in late July with temperatures near to slightly-below normal. 

The wetter pattern may continue into August & it may turn even cooler in the early part of the month.

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Mild Finish To The Weekend
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