SEVERE WX : Severe Thunderstorm Watch View Alerts

June 15, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest weather update from now to August.

Posted: Jun 15, 2020 5:04 PM
Updated: Jun 15, 2020 11:06 PM

Lows this morning were crisp & cool at 44-52, followed by afternoon highs of 78-84 with a nice east wind.

The humidity was once again extremely low today with very high evaporation rates.  Dew points have tended to run in the 30s to around 50.

We have not had such consistently low dew points & relative humidity in June since the 2012 drought.  This is also the warmest first 15 days of June since 2012 with 8 days in the 90s for multiple locations since late May.

Speaking of late May, here at the station in West Lafayette, we have only measured 1.19" rainfall since May 20.

Lawns are browning & dry & crispy.  This is unusual so early in the summer in what is normally the wettest & one of the stormiest times of year.

The same set-up that brought the 94-degree high to Greater Lafayette (up to 96 far northwest) in early June is back.

Called a Rex Block, it features cut-off low in the Southeast with unusually cool weather & rain with hot, dry upper ridge across eastern Canada, New England to the Great Lakes, Midwest & Plains.  Meanwhile, an upper trough with unseasonably heavy rainfall with cool weather sets up in parts of the Great Basin & over the Pacific Northwest to northwestern Rockies.

The Rex Block will continue (cut-off low Southeast, upper trough Northwest & hot upper ridge Plains, Midwest to Great Lakes, then eastern Canada to New England).

Note how complexes of severe storms will migrate into the Plains & southern Canada & form a ring way, way north on the periphery of the ridge in eastern Canada.

Tonight will be mostly clear to clear & cool with lows 55-60, followed by mostly sunny to sunny skies Tuesday with highs 84-90.  The humidity will be extremely low with a light southeast wind.

After 59-65 Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, highs Wednesday should surge to 89-94 with mostly sunny to sunny skies & a light south-southeast wind.  The humidity should still be very low.

With mostly sunny to sunny skies & very low humidity Wednesday, winds will be very light from the southeast.

Thursday looks mostly sunny to sunny with highs 92-97 & very light to calm winds.  The humidity will be very low.  Given the very dry air & continued withering & drying of some vegetation, grass fire threat may go up a hair (cool season grasses & litter drying out).

Friday looks like the hottest day (as of right now) with the actual air temperature at 94-100 with a southwest wind 10-15 mph.  Dew points will only run in the 50s, however.  Some elevated grass fire danger will occur.

Tuesday-Sunday temperatures of at least 90 at Greater Lafayette would qualify as a heat wave.

1 p.m. temperatures Friday are projected at 92-96.

Saturday will be hot at 92-97, but the dew points will be climbing to 65-70 with southwest wind at 15-25 mph.  There will also be some clouds later in the day developing as low-level moisture increases (cumulus mediocris & congestus clouds).  So, the heat index Saturday may reach 95-104.

Explosion of storms will occur Saturday west of our area.

The leftovers of these & then perhaps an MCV-trigger will bring risk of some storms Saturday night & Sunday with dew points surging into the 70-75 range with strong south-southwest winds.

Parameters look MARGINAL to SLIGHT for severe weather.

Projected IR satellite image:

Multiple rounds of storms are likely Monday & Tuesday with highs in the 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the muggy 70s.

Better wind fields aloft will promote storm organization & more SLIGHT RISK parameters.

This will be very welcome rainfall.

Projected IR satellite image:

Storms will shift southward of the area by the end of next week, but not before some additional severe weather (Wednesday & Thursday).

Projected IR satellite image:

Warmer than normal temperatures will dominate our area & east & northward, overall, through July & into August.

Below normal temperatures will occur in the Northern Rockies & parts of the Northern High Plains & also in pockets in the Southeast in Texas & in Georgia to South Carolina.

Below normal rainfall will tend to set up from the Great Lakes & Midwest to New England (overall) from July to a good chunk of August.

Tropics are the wildcard, however, which could bring more rainfall that expected.

West Lafayette
Clear
83° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 89°
Kokomo
Clear
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Hi: 85° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 85°
Rensselaer
Overcast
81° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 85°
Fowler
Overcast
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Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 85°
Williamsport
Clear
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Hi: 87° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 91°
Crawfordsville
Scattered Clouds
79° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 82°
Frankfort
Clear
78° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 81°
Delphi
Scattered Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 86°
Monticello
Scattered Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 86°
Logansport
Clear
82° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 88°
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