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June 14, 11:45 AM Weather Forecast Update

Showers/storms, some severe risk & muggy, increasingly active pattern in late June.

Posted: Jun 14, 2019 10:51 AM
Updated: Jun 14, 2019 11:59 AM

We are under MARGINAL RISK for severe weather Saturday.  Thinking extension of SLIGHT RISK may occur into southern Indiana & also central Illinois.

We are under a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather for Sunday, as well.

So............

A few showers pop near & along the warm front with time later this evening & up to 12 a.m. in the area, moving west-southwest to east-northeast.  Coverage will run around 30%.

A large area of numerous elevated storms should pop along the warm front on nose of strong low-level jet overnight & last right into Saturday morning.  Coverage with run 90%.

A few instances of sub-severe hail (<1" in diameter) are possible & an isolated random severe 1" hailer is possible.

Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible.

Lows of 60-64 are likely.

Most widespread rainfall & storm action should depart by noon.

However, note very distinct MCV in southern Illinois & Indiana.  This is from all of the severe storms in Kansas & Oklahoma & Texas that will have occurred just 12-20 hours prior.

This may pop severe storms in southern Indiana to as far north as metro Indianapolis, but also could regenerate a few showers & storms here.  They would tend to occur in our area 2-5 p.m.  Coverage would tend to run around 30-40%.

Temperatures will run 72-78 with humid to muggy dew points of 68-72.  Winds will increase from the south to south-southwest at 15-30 mph.

A break should ensue after that with some sun here & there with strong south-southwest wind to 30 mph, temperatures 76-81 & humid to muggy dew points of 68-73.

However, line or storms should fire in the northern counties by 8 p.m., it appears.  Line should organize & then progress southward, reaching Greater Lafayette near 12 a.m.  It should pass the viewing area as a whole 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. 

Locally-heavy, flash flood-producing rainfall is possible in our northern counties as line organizes & thus slows & trains in the northern counties 8-11 p.m. before it accelerates southward.

It should gust out & weaken as it progresses southward in the viewing area.

A few severe gusts (+58 mph) cannot be ruled out, embedded in a large, broad area of sub-severe gusty winds with the line (30-50 mph).

A TOTAL OF 1-3" OF RAINFALL is likely viewing area-wide late this evening to Sunday morning, which will result in ponding in fields, rises in creeks & streams & some flash flooding.

BE AWARE IF YOU ARE CAMPING OR WANTING TO CANOE OR KAYAK on the Wildcat or Deer Creek Saturday night (it being Father's Day weekend), as rises in these creeks & streams will occur & may become a fast-moving torrent pretty quickly.  I would scrap these plans this weekend.

New storms should fire on outflow boundary of our Saturday night storms from Pennslyvania to southern Indiana & Kentucky Sunday.

As for us, the high/mid clouds will thin, cumulus will develop & build, we will heat up & cold front will approach.  With strong southwest winds to 30 mph, highs should reach 82-86 with dew points 70-74, leading to heat indices of 87-92.

This may result in a broken line of storms forming over the area or just north of the area that will progress through during the evening & overnight hours.

A couple/few instances of severe wind, hail cannot be ruled out.

Monday-Tuesday looks dry & partly cloudy with highs 77-81 & lows 56-62.  The humidity will lower some as the cold front stays south of our area.  This would change if the front sets up a bit farther northward.  It would keep some storms in the forecast, but I am still opting for the more southward progression of the front.

Much of Wednesday looks dry as front moves back northward as a warm front.  Highs of 77-85 are likely with it becoming humid later in the day from southwest to northeast over the area.

A round of showers & storms are likely along the warm front Wednesday evening-night with some rain lingering into Thursday morning. 

I break should then ensue as the warm front moves north of our area.  With windy (south-southwest to 30 mph), muggy conditions (dew points 70-74) & highs 83-88, new storms should fire to our northwest in the late afternoon to evening.

Some severe weather risk could occur.

Next Friday, Saturday & Sunday look dry, but that following week looks stormy with a "Ring of Fire" or "Ridge Rider" pattern with complexes of storms riding in with off & on severe weather risk & locally-heavy rainfall. 

Overall, it looks like a total of four to five rounds of storms June 25-July 1.

It looks very warm to hot & muggy with highs dominated by the 80s with lows in the 60s to 70s. 

The hottest days look to be June 29 & 30 at this point.

Data suggests Heat Advisory criteria or Excessive Heat Warning criteria around St. Louis & southwestward.  Highs near 100 with dew points in the 70s are forecast around St. Louis.  Heat indices around 114 are possible there.

Dew points around 80 are expected in central Illinois with highs of 92-95.  This would lead to heat indices of around 114.

We are looking at highs around 89-93 with dew points near 76, leading to heat indices of 100-108.

Supercell Composite Parameters light up in that "Ring of Fire" for storm complexes in late June.

Beyond July 1, it looks like our active pattern will cease & there just isn't a lot of consistent severe risk seen to mid-July.  We will likely see a cool down, then it heat up again with temperatures reaching as high as 90-94 with near 101 to 112 heat indices for a time in the early half of July.

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