Scattered showers & storms are likely late today (after 3 p.m. as we moisten up), followed by some chilly rainfall overnight to Thursday morning.
It will turn windy & much cooler overnight with lows 51-55 with northwest winds up to 30 mph.
Isolated severe risk will run west & southwest & east & southeat of our area.
Best dynamics will be west of us, best instability will be east & southeast of us.
Rainfall will vary greatly from 0.15" to 1.10" with most areas seeing 0.25-0.45". The higher totals will occur under the heavier showers & storms of late today-this evening.
Low, gray, dreary stratus clouds will be with us part of tomorrow, followed by a nice clearing trend. It will be a cooler, windy day with north winds to 30 mph & highs only 62-69 (northeast to southwest). Looks like 65-67 at Greater Lafayette.
Unseasonbly cool lows of 43-48 are likely Thursday night as skies clear & winds go light to calm.
Friday looks much warmer with a southwest wind & highs 75-80 with increasing clouds as warm front drifts northward into the area.
Cluster of heavy storms will erupt along & just north of the warm front Friday evening over Iowa with isolated severe hail possible.
This wave of rainfall should pass Friday night-Saturday morning as showers & some storms.
A break should ensue after that.
However, a complex of showers & storms is possible late afternoon-evening Saturday right along & just south of that warm front (by the way, below is the new upgrade to the U.S. GFSFV3 model that looks to fixed the really bad quirks in it, including its atrocious cold bias)
Some (at least MARGINAL RISK) severe weather risk may develop (depends on thermodynamics & how quickly we can recover instability, even if it is largely elevated or rooted atop a more stable layer near the ground).
There could be some showers/storms Sunday, followed by drying trend.
Storms are possible late next week. Severe weather risk still looks possible.
The June 24-July 1 trends overall show frequent visits of storms with severe risk off & on & locally-heavy rainfall at times.
It also looks muggy with highs & lows largely above normal. 80s to 90 will dominate with lows 60s to lower 70s. There looks to be multiple days with highs 88-92 with dew points 72-77, which would bring us heat indices +100 in a chunk of the viewing area.
Storms will then tend to shift northwestward as we start July. Main corridor will be Kansas to Minnesota & the Dakotas & Wisconsin after that.
We tend to cap & show consistent heat daily. Only a few spotty storms may develop at times in early July, it appears currently.