June 11, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest update regarding the forecast update.

Posted: Jun 11, 2020 3:53 PM
Updated: Jun 11, 2020 11:25 PM

Lows this morning were not overly-cool, but given the recent hot stretch & the dominance of hot weather since May 24, it was the coolest in nearly two weeks.

Highs today reached 80-85, but humidity was very low with dew points in the 40s.  Winds gusted to 32 mph from the west & west-northwest with some fair weather cumulus in the PM due to some cool air & more moisture aloft.

Lows tonight of 57-61 are likely, followed by 79-86 tomorrow with west-northwest to west winds 15-25 mph becoming north late.

A cold front will pass tomorrow evening as a band of cumulus with a few isolated showers.

It will turn cool tomorrow night with lows 48-56, followed by highs of 71-78 Saturday under a cumulus-filled sky & northeast winds 10-20 mph.

Lows of 46-53 are likely Saturday night-Sunday morning, followed by sunshine & 73-79 Sunday & then 47-55 Sunday night-Monday morning.

Warm front will pass through Monday with some increasing clouds & highs 78-86, but still low, low humidity.  Winds will turn to the east then southeast at 10-15 mph.

Winds should go southeast to south Tuesday with highs 85-90, but the humidity will be held in check with dew points 55-60.

Hot upper ridge dominates Tuesday-Saturday of next week with highs surging into the 90s on potentially four consecutive days.

It looks very hot at the end of next week. 

Projected highs at the end of next week are 94-100 (dew points do not look that high given dry soils.....Dew points to the 60s seem reasonable......which would mean heat indices 96-104).

It does appear the ridge will contract a hair & a surface cold front will pass around Saturday of next weekend (not this weekend).

A few storms are possible, but there does not look to be a lot of upper support for widespread, organized storms.  Rather, these looks pulsey with 30-40% coverage.

Layer of dry air (also surface dew point depressions of 30-33 degrees) enhance the pulsey storm downdrafts resulting in potential of a couple of isolated downbursts as storms collapse post-peak pulse.  However, organized, longer-lived severe storms are not expected.

At this point, after any scattered storms Saturday, Sunday looks dry, cooler & less humid with highs of 83-88 with a northeast wind & very low dew points in the 40s to 50s.

Front looks to move back north as a warm front & we get hot & humid with 90s.

Multiple waves of storms are possible in the June 23-26 time frame. 

With us being on the periphery of the hot upper ridge with front stalled near the area the railroad track for MCSs will be over our area.

In fact, there are signs of a couple of long-lived MCSs or "Ridge Riders" in a band from Minnesota to Virginia. 

Parameters are MODERATE in Minnesota & Wisconsin & SLIGHT to ENHANCED here southeast to Virginia June 23 & 24.

Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa & Minnesota are under the gun for severe outbreak June 25.  Parameters are ENHANCED for severe weather here on the evening of June 26.

So, this could be an active period & we will catch up on some much-needed rainfall after intense depletes soils of a tremendous amount of moisture.

After slight lulling some more showers/storms may return as we exit June & move into July.

So, after a lot of dry weather up to June 23:

Wetter, stormy weather occurs June 23-26 & then again June 29-July 1 & around July 8-9:

Heat shows domination for late June to early July:

Temperatures should average above normal for mid to late July.  Thoughts continue to center on below normal temperatures in the northeastern Rockies & northern High Plains & then in parts of the Deep South.

Core of the biggest anomalies above normal should be from the Midwest, Great Lakes to eastern Canada & New England.

Above normal rainfall should occur southern Indiana & over the entire southeast U.S.

We are trending a bit below normal in our area to parts of the western Corn Belt & over the Great Lakes & New England.  This is associated with the the dominant upper ridge in this general area.

All this said & shown, the PNA will be the dominant teleconnectic influence over the next week, then couple to even four weeks.  Analog shows strong influence & it shows, overall, the position of cooler weather & the intense heat.  This matches projected & forecast temperature anomalies for the rest of June & through July.

There continues to be a trend towards warmer than normal mean temperatures in August.  However, a nice cool-down of very pleasant weather of below normal temperatures may occur for a time.  However, averaged out, the heat will dominate the cool.

Rainfall continues to trend below normal, but the tropics continue to be the wildcard.

September-October-November period averages warmer than normal with below normal precipitation.

November looks the wetter of the two months with it also featuring the greatest temperature anomalies above normal.

December-January-February 2020-21 are still overall trending warmer than normal, but also wetter than normal with below normal snowfall.

Big cold anomalies looks to hug southern Canada to the U.S. Canadian border to perhaps northern Montana & North Dakota, but there continues to be this trend of tight polar vortex & a lack of intense cold outbreaks that would prevent us from dropping below -10 for the winter.

We will continue to monitor.

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