NOW TO THIS WEEKEND:
The hottest weather of the summer is ahead Friday & into the weekend.
Heat indices Friday will run 95-103 & Saturday 96-106. Actual highs will reach 91-98 Friday & 92-99 Saturday.
Sunday still looks hot, but not quite as bad with highs 87-95 & heat indices 87-96 & a lake breeze front may make it into our northwestern counties by late afternoon, cooling them further.
So, today a few spotty storms are possible with 30% coverage before fading with time this evening.
We should turn mostly clear tonight with some patchy fog & lows 67-72.
Tomorrow looks awfully capped, limiting any storm development, but it will be boiling hot. I kept any storm risk out of the forecast. If some small local trigger can get a cumulus cloud through the cap, then isolated storm would pop. I kept it at 15%.
After 67-72 Friday night with some patchy fog, Saturday looks boiling, but at least there will be a west wind at 10-25 mph. Also, in the evening behind a cold front, the wind will suddenly turn to the northwest at 15-30 mph & the humidity will drop.
Saturday looks awfully capped, as well. However, if the capped can be breached by some cumulus towers along the front, then a couple to few storms could develop.
I have been on the fence about including POPs for Saturday varying 20 to 30% for the past couple of days.
I took the POPs out lastnight & though I do not like flip-flopping, I re-inserte 20% POPs today just based on my gut.
If a few storms can breach the cap along the weak cold front in areas of enhanced surface wind convergence, then those storms could really go up quickly. Coverage will not be high, but if a couple storms can totally breach the lid, then they could go severe given how boiling it will be. Threat would be an isolated downburst with secondary threat with the downburst being hail.
Sunday looks hot with 88-95, but it will be less humid with heat indices of 88-96 with a northwest wind 10-20 mph.
Monday-Wednesday looks less humid with no heat index. It will feel like the actual air temperature with dew points in the 40s & 50s.
Highs will run 86-92 Monday, 85-90 Tuesday & 84-90 Wednesday. Lows will drop to 55-62, so there will be some good sleeping weather at night.
THURSDAY-TUESDAY, JUNE 22:
We heat back up to 88-94 Thursday with heat indices 90-98 with a southwest wind.
By next Friday through Sunday, we could be well into the 90s again with a strong west to southwest wind.
Also, be next Friday we will be WANTING RAIN BADLY. It will be getting especially dry here with crop stress developing. We will lose so much water over the next +1 week.
By next weekend, we will be tracking a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
I looks like a landfall potentially around June 23. My gut says Texas for a landfall, but models can't decide where.
My gut also tends to point to it riding the upper ridge back west & northwest to either Mexico or getting pulled into the Southwest U.S to Rockies & High Plains.
A round of severe storms is possible around June 20 to 22 in the area. This would be the latest Severe T'Storm Watch on record for the area (back to 1972 as I see) with the former latest being June 17, 1992. We have never gone beyond June 17 without a severe weather watch issued for part or all of the viewing area since at least '72.
Again, earliest severe weather watch issued in a year was January 2, 2006.
JUNE 23-JULY 15:
We may even have another round that follows those severe storms a day or two after.
The end of June to mid-July looks frequently excessively hot & dry with highs 90s to 100s & a lack of rainfall. Right up to mid-July, much of the severe weather risk is way, way north of the area in the northern Plains & Canada with that heat & dry weather dominating here. It is a good set-up for Progressive Derechos way, way north of the area.
We will be wanting rain BADLY by mid-July.
Undoubtedly, we will have a few pop-ups of storms in the boiling instability (& some random severe weather with some downbursts in such heat), but widespread rainfall should occur unless we can somehow get a "Ring of Fire" complex of storms in here. That looks difficult at the moment, but could change if a particularly strong upper trough & surface cold front can contract the upper ridge some, especially over the northeast U.S. That would be a good set-up to get some "Ring of Fire" storm complexes in here............we just don't want a damaging Progressive Derecho.
JULY 15-SEPTEMBER 15:
We will monitor the tropics for systems that make the turn towards our area to bring welcome rainfall.
Overall, this is a hot, dry pattern for us, but there will still be some storms around & we will monitor for risk of a Progressive Derecho in the "Ring of Fire".
Some sustained heat relief may occur for a time in very late July to early August, then late August, it may actually turn cooler than normal.
We also increase our odds of getting widespread heavier rainfall in later August as the tropics really ramp up.
This will continue into September.
Trend for September is cooler than normal, but I think we could go either way on rainfall. If the tropics can really open up for us, it could end up being a much wetter month, despite the overall synoptic pattern suggestive of dominant cooler northwest flow with a considerable amount of dry air & continuation of drier trend.