The start of June 2020 has been a hot one.
It is the hottest June since 2012 & has seen the greatest number of 90s days so early since 2012 with 8.
Number of 90s days from various weather observation sites from COOP to AWOS/ASOS to INDOT to mesonet in the area May 24-June 10 vary from 0-9.
We are also around 8 degrees above the normal June 1-10 mean temperature.
Temperatures in the viewing area have been as high as 96.
Peak temperatures since May 24:
95 Kentland Muncipal Airport...6 NE Winamac
93 5 W Delphi...Peru Municipal Airport...Grissom Air Reserve Base
94 5 W Chalmers COOP...Frankfort Municipal Airport...Purdue Airport...WLFI-TV...3 SE Covington...Remington...3 E Attica...2 SW Rossville
92 Purdue Ag Farm (6 NW West Lafayette)...Monticello-White County Airport...Flora Municipal Airport...Kokomo Municipal Airport...Francesville COOP...Kokomo Municipal Airport...5 W Delphi
91 Logansport-Cass County Airport...Rensselaer-Jasper County Airport...Rochester-Fulton County Airport...Peru Municipal Airport...2 NW Crawfordsville
90 Rochester COOP...Grissom Air Reserve Base
88 6 SE Crawfordsville COOP...Crawfordsville Municipal Airport
Two strong storm systems have passed in the past two days, resulting in persistent, strong winds. One was Cristobal, which interracted with stronger winds aloft to deepen rapidly. The other system was strong & deep, as well. This resulted in very tight pressure gradients over the area to bring the strong winds.
The strong, tropical winds lastnight led to some areas not even dropping below 80, which is quite a feat for so early in the season.
Peak gusts measured yesterday & today:
Storms fired in our eastern counties near midday to early afternoon & produced considerable tree damage in parts of Howard & southeastern Miami counties with gusts 70-80 mph.
Quarter to golfball hail also occurred with the winds, resulting in crop damage, tree foliate shredding & some cracked car windshields.
It has been an impressive severe weather outbreak today largely east of the area.
Reports number more than 300 from Illinois to Michigan through Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky. Many other reports are found in southwestern Ontario through the Canadian weather service office (Environment Canada).
Yesterday was an active day, as well.
Low humidity & nice days will dominate through Sunday.
Thursday & Friday, was well as Saturday look breezy to windy.
A couple brief, isolated showers from band of cumulus clouds are possible later Friday. This is cold front that will bring the cooler weather Saturday. Saturday night lows may drop to 47-54.
Warm front should pass Monday & hot upper ridge should dominate Tuesday to the rest of next week.
90s will return. The higher humidity will overspread the area by Tuesday & Wednesday.
90s look to dominate Wednesday, June 18-Sunday, June 22. Temperatures may peak at 93-98 (100 possible in local extra-dry topsoil soil enhancement) with heat indices 96-105.
The next decent potential of some rainfall looks to not occur until Sunday, June 22-Thursday, June 26.
The peak in severe weather risk is evolving for around June 25 or 26. Parameters show SLIGHT to ENHANCED when you measure & overally preliminary MLCAPE, shear, lapse rates & look at the front & shortwaves riding the front.
The hot upper ridge may contract & front stall over the area with waves of showers & storms.
Temperatures may cooler to the 80s to lower 90s, but the humidity will skyrocket.
This rainfall will be welcome. It is going to get quite dry & areas of crop stress will develop.
Overall, over the next 10-15 to even 15-30 days, the overall dominant teleconnectic influencer is the PNA.
Analog shows it tending to put cooler than normal weather in the Rockies & parts of the South & above normal temperatures in our region & through much of the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes to New England.
The overall model trends show a similar set-up.
The MJO will become a bit neutral with less influence for the next month, so it is less of an influence for the time being.
Above normal temperatures here with the intense heat in the June 16-23 time frame:
The main corridor of heavy rainfall & severe weather will be northwest of our area. The ridge shows up well with the below normal rainfall.
Temperatures June 24-July 1 period are above normal.
Rainfall is above normal in the June 24-July 1 period. Much of this rainfall just might occur in the June 24-26 period with heavy storms at times.
July 1-10 looks hot with 90s & high humidity as upper ridge builds in again.
July 1-10 rainfall looks below normal here as upper ridge develops & sprawls out over the Corn Belt, Great Lakes to Ontario & New England. The South looks wet due to more tropical activity.
Beyond July 10 there continues to be a trend for overall temperature means to be above normal here.
Below normal temperatures will tend to occur in parts of the Rockies to High Plains with normal to slightly below normal temperatures.
Above temperatures occur Midwest, Northeast & then in the Pacific Northwest to California.
For July as a whole, we look drier than normal & that dryness should extend westward in the Corn Belt & dryness over the Great Lakes to New England.
Area of heavier rainfall will be in the Dakotas to northern Minnesota & all over the South, extending up to southern Indiana.
Tropical activity will begin to really ramp up as MJO returns to more of a dominant phase & a phase that further supports heat here.
August is trending warmer than normal, but a period of quite cool, below normal temperatures is likely for a good week when you analog the same set-up in past Augusts.
Cooler weather looks to dominate in the Eastern Rockies & Plains to western Corn Belt.
August rainfall is trending a bit below normal overall. However, given the active tropics (Atlantic will be active....Pacific will be less active) this year, that could be a big wildcard to suddenly push rainfall above normal.
We will monitor.
On a side note, September & October look drier & warmer than normal. November & December are still trending warmer & wetter than normal.