June 17, 9:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

More showers/storms ahead.

Posted: Jun 16, 2019 9:19 PM
Updated: Jun 17, 2019 1:13 PM

Sporadic wind damage with trees & limbs down was reported from lastnight's storms from near Covington to near Waynetown & Wingate.

There are no weather stations in this area, nor over western Warren & northwestern Fountain (other than Attica), so no gust data could be ascertained, but size of limbs & tree species suggest 58-61 mph gusts.

The highest MEASURED gust in the area was 41 mph at I-65 & 28 (west of Frankfort).

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Severe, torrential storms over southern Indiana to Kentucky & over West Virginia continue to move east & southeastward.

Meanwhile, some storms have been occurring along the cold front right on our southern fringe in Montgomery County.

Front will begin to move back northward some tonight as MCV pivots through southern to central Indiana.

Some of the showers & storms in the southern fringe now will migrate northward & bring 30% coverage of some showers & storms overnight.  Some areas of dense fog are possible esp in the northwestern areas with partly to mostly cloudy skies over the area.

Lows will vary from 55 far north to 66 in the south (63 Greater Lafayette)

Front should then sink back southward, then then begin to migrate back northward tomorrow.

A few scattered storms are possible mainly in the south late in the day with partly to mostly cloudy skies over the area.

It will be less humid in the north, but more humid in the south with highs 76 north to 83 south (79 Greater Lafayette).

Front should be south of us Tuesday with a completely dry day with lower humidity & highs 78-82 (80 Greater Lafayette) after morning lows 56-62 (58 Greater Lafayette).

Any storms should occur south of I-70 along & south of the cold front.

Storms are possible late Wednesday-Wednesday night with some severe risk.

Highs will warm to 82-88 with heat indices up to 89-96 once warm front surges north of the area in the morning (after lows 59-66).

Next week looks active with rounds of storms possible.  It looks warm to hot & muggy with highs 80s to 90s, lows 60s to 70s & dew points well into the 70s.

June 22-30 CIPS analog data overall shows high occurrence of severe weather & heavy rainfall in this pattern.

Temperature anomalies look like this:

Heavy rainfall potential shows up well in the analog data.

CIPS data shows percentage of the top 105 analogs with at least 10 REPORTS of severe weather within 110 km of a grid point.  This is a high percentage for so far out.  You can see the severe weather pattern on periphery of the upper ridge.

Analogs show a high percentage of occurrence of at least 1 SIGNIFICANT WIND REPORT (+74 mph) within 110 km of a grid point in similar regimes.

Analogs also show pretty elevated risk of at least 1 TORNADO within 110 km of a grid point in this pattern.

Timing of severe risk here is tricky, but this gives you some idea of occurrence based on the latest data.

1.  Next Saturday PM June 22 (Severe Risk, but worst of it Iowa, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, northern & northwestern Missouri)

3.  Next Saturday night-Sunday AM June 22-23 (Isolated severe risk here, but worst of it Iowa, northwestern Illinois, northeastern Missouri).

4.  Next Sunday PM-night June 23 (Severe Risk here, but worst of it Iowa, Missouri, eastern Kansas to western Illinois)

5.  Tuesday night June 25-26. (Severe Risk here with worst of it over our area & over Iowa to Minnesota after significant severe risk Iowa & Minnesota potentially Monday evening)

6.  Wednesday PM June 27 (Some Risk here with worst of it Minnesota to northeastern Iowa, southeastern Wisconsin & northern Illinois)

7.  Friday night June 29 (Severe Risk here with worst of it northern Ilinois & Iowa to southern Wisconsin & Michigan......Just prior, Significant Risk possible North & South Dakota to Iowa, Minnesota & Wisconsin Thursday to Thursday night)

June 22-30 rainfall may run 2-6" over the area.

Storm axis should completely shift north of our area by July 1-2.

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