Severe T'Storm Watch is up to our northwest until 10 p.m. Eastern.
Another watch is over north Ohio.
Another watch will be up soon that will cover central & western Illinois.
Another watch will likely be up in a few hours that covers our area to Fort Wayne to South Bend areas.
Well-defined utflow boundary runs from Toledo, Ohio to South Bend, Indiana to Chicago, Illinois.
A highly-diffuse & increasingly non-existent outflow boundary that was near Rensselaer about 5 hours ago is now running from south of Fort Wayne to Linden to near Danville, Illinois. Cumulus a bit enhanced in that zone.
Surface cold front is lined up from southern Wisconsin to northwest Missouri.
Storms will continue to develop along/just ahead of front & along northern Indiana outflow boundary with potential of some development along diffuse boundary in our area.
Directional shear focused in the hail zone, along with relatively cool mid-level temperatures, unstable airmass & ventilation of storms through decent upper flow supports storms with downburst & large hail risk, evolving more to swaths of wind with time.
This will occur as supercells & multi-cells gell into clusters & then a couple of pretty broken lines with time.
It appears that tornado risk will tend to be confined to areas well north of us along the warm front in southern Michigan.
Threat is after 5 p.m. to 11 p.m. for severe risk in the area.
In the back of my mind, I have some curiousity as to whether the smoke will affect the storms & if so, how much.
Thick smoke will pass tonight-Sunday morning. The thick smoke will tend to thin in the afternoon some.
Thick smoke may return Monday-Tuesday, dimming sun & turning sky a milky gray, white & bronze. Gray sunsets with sun a red ball in the sky will be commonplace early in the week.
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