June 1, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

New data is streaming in....here is your update.

Posted: Jun 1, 2020 8:29 PM
Updated: Jun 1, 2020 11:25 PM

Upper 90s to 101 occurred today from western Minnesota to Kansas as the heat intensifies there.

Highs today reached 73-80 with skies clouding up.

There were a few isolated showers in the PM. 

A couple of isolated showers are possible for a bit while longer followed by clearing tonight with lows in the 60s.

89-94 is likely Tuesday with sunshine & strong west-southwest winds. 

Humidity looks to be held in check with heat indices peaking at 89-96.

70s tomorrow night should give way to 80s to lower 90s Wednesday.  Dew points will increase quite a bit Wednesday to the 70-74 range.  Heat indices should reach the 94-102 range.

Storms should fire on outflow boundary from the storms tracking from North Dakota to New York & Pennsylvania late Tuesday to Wednesday midday.

SPC has SLIGHT RISK up for area. 

Storms look to fire right over the area of around US 24 (then sag southeast & southward) with mainly damaging wind risk (isolated hail at first possible). They should congeal into a line/bow.  Bow/line should move south & actually begin to turn to the southwest & west-southwest around periphery of upper ridge.

Timing of severe weather risk is trending in the 3 p.m. to 9 p.m. time frame as a whole.

On tail end of the outflow boundary of all of these storms, some new scattered storms could form Thursday afternoon-evening.  These would tend to move northeastward in the area as that tail end is pulled back to the northeastward by strong southwest flow.

Highs Thursday should reach 89-93 with heat indices 94-101 after lows of 67-72 in the morning.

If storms can get in here, steep lapse rate, so-so shear & deep ML CAPE could promote some severe risk (wind/hail).

We also need to watch the severe storms in Iowa.  The MCV from those storms could pop storms that impact us Friday.  If that can happen, then severe risk could develop given the intense heating & humidity.

The weekend looks dry & mostly sunny to partly cloudy at the moment.  The hottest weather should contract to the Plains.

We will still be very warm to hot at 87-91 with lows in the 60s, but not like the 90s & 100s in the Plains.

Widespread showers & storms are likely Wednesday as the remnants of what will become "Cristobal" (as a high-end tropical storm or hurricane).  Landfall will take place early next weekend anywhere between Corpus Christi, Texas & Biloxi, Mississippi.

In these MJO phases in this time of year, there is a tendency for landfalls to occur more toward Louisiana to Mississippi & Alabama.

This will tend to quell intense heat & keep the worst of it in the Plains.

Cold front should follow around June 12-13 with showers/storms. 

Nice shot of cooler, comfortable air should follow with highs in the 70s & lows in the 48-55 range for a couple to few days.

We should heat back up quickly again after that & hotter pattern will dominate in late June to early July.  Some "Ridge Riders" may also occur again with severe weather risk.

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Monticello
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Logansport
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Clearer Wednesday after some patchy morning fog
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