A few storms in our area this morning have faded away as of 10 a.m.
We should be dry until new storms fire this afternoon, organize into a line & pass through.
Highs will warm into the 80s to near 90 with heat indices in the 90s to near 100.
MCV is currently over the intersection of Iowa, Illinois & Missouri.
There is a lot of messy convective debri (leftover cloudiness) with it, but currently thinking is that two bands of cumulus towers should develop as the debri thins over the next few hours. One band should form west of us & the other to the southwest, which will become two eventual lines of storms.
Highly-unstable airmass is expected to develop over the area by afternoon with a deep, well-distributed layer of CAPE with steep lapse rates. Effective shear is not great, but thermodynamics make up for just slight lack of it (still enough for storm organization, however) with 2500 J/kg of effective CAPE & max CAPE of +3000 J/kg with that focused near the surface.
A considerable amount of downdraft CAPE & PWAT anomaly of 2" or more (unusually high amount of water to squeeze out) will result in the risk of a wet downburst or two with an overall wind threat. There is also a bit of a dry layer noted in the 5,000-8,000' layer, which also gives creedance to the mention of wind & downburst risk.
Some large hail will be an issue if storms can be discrete long enough before they merge into a line, given the amount of CAPE.
I am a bit surprised that SLIGHT RISK is not painted farther northeastward through the viewing area.
Entire area is MARGINAL RISK, except for a tiny bit of southern Fountain & Montgomery counties under SLIGHT RISK of severe.
Parameters do suggest an area-wide SLIGHT RISK.
Storms will exit by evening with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight with muggy conditions.
Some showers & storms are possible Monday morning & then more are possible Monday afternoon-evening.
Severe weather risk may develop Monday afternoon-evening as a couple of broken spokes of storms pivot through.
Highs will run in the 80s with muggy dew points in the 70s.
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- December 23, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
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- September 23, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- October 23, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update