SEVERE WX : Excessive Heat Warning View Alerts

June 18, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some more showers & storms & active pattern with severe risk & heavy rainfall still on the table for next week.

Posted: Jun 17, 2019 1:28 PM
Updated: Jun 17, 2019 2:45 PM

Cold front is south of the area today.  This has resulted in a north wind.  This north wind resulted in a lake breeze front (with its cooler air, loaded with moisture from Lake Michigan) to move southward overnight. This cool, moisture-laden air in combo with our warmer, muggy air created quite a bank of dense fog over the area this morning. 

Warmer, wet ground with high dew points with a blanket of cold-water chilled cool, moisture-rich air over the top of it makes for fog.  Just as a cold, wet, snow-covered ground with warm, moist air over the top of it makes for fog, too.

So much wind recently has greatly churned up & mixed the water in the lake (unusually for the season), allowing for upwelling of deep, cold water to come to the surface.  This has resulted in greater lake-attributed temperature & condition impacts for mid to late June.

Lake stratus deck continues over much of the area, trapped under an inversion.  It will continue to be mostly cloudy for much of the area today. Even as this deck breaks, clouds will increase from the southwest.


As MCV pivots south of our area, front will be pulled north some late today-tonight.

A few showers & storms are possible along the front & on the northern fringe of the MCV, mainly the south half of the area.

Looks like any showers or storm in the south would not make it in until after 5 p.m. today.  Coverage will run around 30%.

Some patchy fog is possible late tonight with lows of 57-67 from north to south after highs today in the 70s.

Tuesday looks dry & partly to mostly cloudy with highs 77-82 with dew points in the 60s (making for a humid day).

Showers & storms are likely Wednesday late afternoon-night.

The entire viewing area is in a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather. 

Right now, it looks like the worst of the severe risk is lining up just south of our area with SLIGHT parameters showing up.

The best potential of any severe in our area right now looks to be shaping up south of Lafayette, but this COULD change.  It could easily shift northward some.

Note the zone of high helicity & shear along I-70 to as far north as Parke County.  This is an area of tornado risk Wednesday late along differential heating zone of a rain-cooled boundary/warm front with 70s north of it & 80s to 90 south of it.  Also, the deepening surface low intersects very close to atop this zone.

A cluster of supercells should ride along this boundary, potentially sitting right atop the surface low.  Other lines/bands of multi-cells & supercells will elongate farther southward.

I am showing you this to state that it is close to our southern counties & will need to be monitored.

I am going with highs of 77-82 Wednesday after 57-65 in the morning.

Rain/storms exit Wednesday night, so Thursday looks dry with sun/clouds & highs 76-81.  Front moves back north Friday, resulting in warmer weather with southeast to then southwest winds & higher humidity.  Highs should rise to 82-87.

Friday night looks warm & muggy.

Then............the "Ridge Riders" begin. 

Potential is there for a complex of storms or an MCS to dive along that warm front & ridge the gP height gradient right into our area.

This would tend to occur overnight Friday night-Saturday morning.

Some severe weather is possible with mainly a wind threat, but directional shear for tornado risk will be monitored near warm front.

Storms may re-fire on the MCSs outflow boundary & remnant MCV southeast & just south of us Saturday p.m. while we dry & are very warm to hot & muggy with highs 83-90 with dew points in the 70s.  Heat indices will run 88-97.  At least there will be a southwest wind at 15-30 mph.

Saturday night currently looks just breezy & muggy with only a couple storms possible along old outflow boundary from our former MCS moving northward through the area.

New storms may affect us Sunday afternoon-evening as a complex or MCS with a squall line moves through.

Severe weather looks possible with a wind threat.

Storms are possible Monday afternoon-evening (some severe) & another may pass just south of us Tuesday morning.  This may put the kabosh on any new development Tuesday afternoon-night.

Storms are again possible Wednesday afternoon-evening (some severe). 

There are indications that the upper ridge may expand Thursday & cap us & then expand GREATLY Friday through next weekend, shoving the severe storm & heavy rainfall axis northward a bit prematurely.

This would put us in a hot, muggy pattern with 80s & 90s with heat indices upper 90s to 112 & only a couple pop-up storms here & there at times.

The pattern shift shows up well in the GFS model & other models are grabbing this notion of pushing the "Ring of Fire" north of here around June 25, rather than June 30.

Here's the danger of suddenly putting a hot ridge over very wet ground with lots of lush vegetation from rainfall............

We have had downright historic upper ridges over the Arctic & parts of Canada this spring & summer.

If one of those migrates southward or re-establishes itself with this ridge developing right over our region, then you could have a very oppressive, capped environment.

The wet ground with dew points surging to 70s to lower 80s with this sudden upper ridge could make for 90s with heat indices incredibly high.

In 1995 we saw such a scenario where it was extremely wet everywhere & then this massive upper ridge formed in our region & brought historic heat indices of up to 120 (+125 in northern Illinois).  Not saying that will happen again, as that occurred in historically the hottest time of the summer & it seemed to originate over the hot, dry areas of droughty Texas & suddenly expand northward.

Wet soils in 1999 combined with a hot ridge to bring another round of historic heat indices to our area.

1999s event occurred when the East Coast & Northeast hot, droughty ridge migrated westward over a saturated Corn Belt.  This also occurred climatologically in the hottest time of the summer.

This ridge seems to be developing from the semi-permanent (since February) far Southeast U.S. ridge with a fusion of the Southwest U.S. ridge (which is pretty typical for this time of year in that region of the world).  The Southeast ridge is bringing drought to that area & brought the warmest February & May on record to that region.  You get the Canadian ridging to develop or shift with this ridging & it would result in a bad scenario for significant, intense heat & humidity

It just bears watching.  It will get very warm to hot & very muggy.  The magnitude is in question, but players are on the table for a brief, but intense event.

Cold front should come through with a bit cooler, less humid air after a few storms in the first week of July.

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