SEVERE WX : Flash Flood Watch View Alerts

June 10, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

Gray now, sun soon............

Posted: Jun 10, 2019 10:31 AM
Updated: Jun 10, 2019 11:56 AM

Rainfall yesterday varied wildly from a trace to 1.55".  The highest totals were in northeastern Cass to southeastern Fulton County with those +1.50" amounts.  Large areas of Cass, Miami, Carroll, Fulton & Pulaski saw +0.50" rainfall.  Western Newton & Benton counties saw the same.

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It is drab & dreary over much of the viewing area now, but breaks in the clouds are occurring in our northwestern & western counties & the clearing line is east of I-57 & moving eastward.

So, we will turn mostly sunny today with highs 69-75 with windy conditions (northwest winds 20-35 mph).

With northwest wind at 10-15 mph initially & clear skies, wind should go light tonight.  Lows will run 49-55.

Tomorrow looks good with sunshine & some clouds with highs 78-82.  West to northwest winds at 5-8 mph should become southeast late.

Clouds increase tomorrow night & into Wednesday & after lows of 57-62, highs Wednesday should run 73-78. 

It looks like mostly virga or any rainfall drying up on the way down to the ground up to midday (with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies).

A couple waves of some scattered showers are possible in the afternoon to early evening with 40-50% coverage.

Isolated severe risk or MARGINAL RISK will exist southwest of our area, but we look to just get the leftovers.

The most widespread rainfall action should occur 9 p.m.-12 a.m. with 60% of showers & a few storms.

Winds will be from the southwest for the day at 5-10 mph early, then increasing to 10-20 mph.

Thursday looks fall-like with 50s early, giving way to highs of only 63-70 over the area with strong north winds to 30 mph.

Low clouds will be with us for a good chunk of the day, followed by late day clearing.  Drizzle & a few showers are possible in the morning.

It will certainly not be the best pool day.

This is quite an extent of below normal temperatures!

Some daily record low temperatures are possible New Mexico to Texas to parts of the South.

Clear skies Thursday night will give way to increasing high & mid clouds Friday with warm front moving through the area. Highs will be warmer at 72-80 after morning lows of 46-51.

Winds will turn to the southwest & increase to 10-20 mph.

It does appear that a wave of showers & some storms may pass Friday night to Saturday morning over the area with lows in the 60s.

Saturday is a bit up in the air.  Warm front's position will play key role.  Whether it is north of us, south of us or right over the top of us will determine showers/storms risk.

All agree on some rainfall in the morning, but p.m. is in question.  The trend has been for us to stay dry after the morning with showers & storms over Missouri & Illinois.

SATURDAY:

U.S. GFS model:  Ensembles show warm front right atop area or just north of it with most members suggesting a wave of showers & storms in the p.m.  18 of 20 members show rainfall during the p.m.

U.S. GFSFV3 model:  Front is just south of us & any showers & storms are southwest of us Saturday p.m.

Canadian GEM (a.k.a CMC) model:  Front is just south of area with all showers & storms southwest of us in the p.m.

U.S. NAVGEM (formerly NOGAPS) model:  Front is just south of area with all showers & storms southwest of us in the p.m.

UKMET, Euro seem to line up with the idea of pushing rainfall out by Saturday p.m.

German ICON model:  Seems to line up more with the U.S. GFS by having warm front over area with some p.m. rainfall.

We will monitor.

70s to 80s for highs looks good (80s if south of warm front, 70s to 80 if north of it), but forecasts disagree on rain placement by about 100 miles in the p.m.

Rainfall potential Sunday-Monday will be determined by position of the warm front.

Above normal temperatures will begin to return.

Eventually the warm front will shift completely north of the area, bathing us in heat & humidity with a complex or two of storms riding in June 17-25 in an otherwise dry regime.

U.S. GFS model shows a high of near 91 on June 23 with dew points around 78!  That would give us a heat index of 106!  That would be a day or evening to watch for a severe "Ridge Rider" or "Ring of Fire" complex of storms here with severe risk.

Longer-range data continues to suggest active late-June to 1st of July pattern. 

Supercell Composite Parameter still indicates this.

Front stalled nearby in hot, muggy environment with strong westerlies on periphery of upper ridging support severe risk for multiple days here (with heavy rainfall).

This zone of severe risk should shift a bit more to the northwest into early July, diminishing our severe risk & occurrence.

Early through mid-July averages out to slightly above normal mean temperatures here.  The cooler weather will be in the Plains & eastern Rockies.

Thinking biggest heat anomalies will set up from Carolinas to Northeast with upper ridging.

The anomalies in Arkansas, Tennessee & Louisiana will largely be based on exceptionally warm nights with tropical flow from the Gulf of Mexico feeding the Plains heavy rainfall & storms.

That tropical air will also bring us a lot of muggy days & nights.

Rainfall looks slightly above normal here overall with lots of wet weather in the Plains & eastern Rockies with lots of MCSs & a robust start to monsoon season.

Carolinas to Northeast look drier where ridge will tend to anchor.

With our muggy days & nights with tropical air, our rainfall is tipped toward slightly above normal due to any storms that occur in the area dumping heavy rainfall.

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