Temperatures are 85-91 over the viewing area as of 1:15 p.m. with heat indices as high as 104. I have 90 with heat index of 97 as of 1:15 p.m. Heat indices are highest over the wettest soils (higher dew points) from storms yesterday.
The south-southwest breeze today is helpful in mixing the air a bit (so it is not so boiling hot & stifling near the ground) & making it feel more bearable outside.
Still appears storm coverage will be much, much less today compared to yesterday. I went with 20% today with highs near 90 to the mid 90s with heat indices mid 90s to as high as 107.
Late this evening-tonight to early Friday morning, showers/storms will pass with coverage back up to 50%. A couple of isolated severe gusts are possible in the western & northwestern part of the viewing area.
After 50% rainfall coverage early Friday morning, it looks completely dry for a good while as sinking air occurs in wake of surface low/MCV & weak cold front.
Winds will be nice & gusty at 15-25 mph from the northwest with temperatures reaching 85-91 with heat indices 87-95.
It also still appears that the afternoon is worthy of 20% POPs as a couple isolated showers/storms pop on back side of that low/MCV.
60s early Saturday morning should give way to partly cloudy skies & highs 85-91 with heat indices 87-94. Winds look westerly at 5-15 mph.
After 60s early Sunday morning, we will be tracking surface low over Wisconsin.
This will bring scattered storms Sunday with highs 86-91 with heat indices of 90-97. Winds will be southwest of 15-25 mph.
Wind fields & shear look to strengthen a hair with unstable airmass. Parameters do suggest SLIGHT RISK with multi-cell clusters pivoting through with a wind & hail threat (45% coverage).
We will monitor & see how this unfolds as new data continues to roll in this evening & over the next few days.
Significant heat wave, comparable with those in 2012, 2010, 1999, 1995, 1988 & 1983 looks to develop next week & peak next weekend.
Euro projected highs for Saturday are 99-104 with heat indices 105-115.
It looks largely dry & strongly capped, however a long-lived MCS or derecho may track on the periphery of the expanding hot upper ridge Wednesday-Thursday from the Dakotas to the Northeast U.S. This has the potential to impact areas north of U.S. 24 Wednesday night after midnight with damaging wind threat.
We will monitor.
I am putting "AM" in the 7-day for storm risk Wednesday late night-early Thursday to account for this.
Projected highs for Saturday, July 18:
Looks like a lack of much heat relief until after July 23 & that looks brief. Really, early August is the next time we see much consistent relief from the heat.