July 8, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Lots of heat into late July after briefly cooler weather.

Posted: Jul 8, 2019 2:33 PM
Updated: Jul 8, 2019 3:32 PM

With cumulus clouds & sun, temperatures are running 80-86 as of 2:30 p.m. over the viewing area. Dew points are 61-69, except for a little tongue of dry air in the far northeast with a dew point in the mid 50s at Rochester.

Highs should end up at 82-88 today with lows tonight at 59-64.

Some patchy high clouds & some patches of fog are possible tonight.

Some areas of high & mid clouds may increase Tuesday with some cumulus around.  Highs will run 85-90 with dew points of 58-66.

However, Wednesday looks oppressive with dew points rising well into the 70s with highs 89-92.  Heat indices will run 97-107.

There may be a southwest breeze at 10-20 mph, but it will still feel pretty miserable.

There is a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for much of the viewing area.

A couple of broken line of storms are likely with a scattered/broken damaging wind threat.  Given the broken nature of the lines, storms may be a bit discrete, resulting in risk of some hail.

They may struggle with a lot of capping at the onset, but that should gradually erode late afternoon-evening.

After briefly cooler weather Thursday-Friday with highs 78-84 & lows 55-59, heat should overspread the area this upcoming weekend with widespread 90-95 weather with heat indices surging to 96-105.

We will watch & see what this tropical system does along the Gulf Coast (late week to weekend) with a brief cool-down possible between this weekend to early next week heat & then the heat resurgence for beyond July 20.

An oddity indeed, it is strong MCV with its MCSs riding the upper ridge that will cause this tropical system to develop.

As they ride the upper ridge from Virginia & North Carolina to Georgia (potential some vorticity help from the drop in elevation from the Appalachians to Piedment to Coastal Plain as it rides lee side of Appalachians) then the Gulf Coast, they should then induce the tropical depression to storm formation pretty rapidly (even the favorable environment there). 

Current thoughts are that system will drift to Texas & then remnants ride into the central Plains around ridge.  Much could change.  Depends on how large & wide ridge is & timing of the formation of the system.

Off the top of my head, last time I remember something like this with an MCV was August 1983.  An MCS or complex of storms on the night of August 13, 1983 dropped into the Gulf & then led to the very rapid formation of the storm within 1-1.5 days.  A small, compact hurricane, it killed 21 & peaked at Category 3 with a loss at the time of $3 billion.  The Houston metro was hit the hardest.

A band of heavy rainfall occurred with it in a band from Texas to Iowa.

Watch the interesting evolution of the system expected mid to late this week to next weekend:

Some storms are possible Saturday night ("Ridge Rider")& possibly Tuesday night ("Ridge Rider") again next Thursday.  Each may have some severe risk.

A late July period of many days in the 90s with heat indices +100 as upper ridging occurs in the eastern U.S. is still on the table.

We need to watch this ridge for potential it could spiral into a really intense ridge with significant heat wave.

Highs now look to peak at 93-97.  Should it spiral into really intense sinking air with very strong ridge, 96-101 would be on the table.

We shall see.  Much could happen between now & then, but just be ready for more hot, humid weather.

GEFS Ensembles continues to support the idea of strong, hot upper ridging here:

CFSV2 supports hot upper ridging:

Cooler, wetter weather should arrive in early August with heat wave ending & a trend towards below normal temperatures.

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Some snow Wednesday to Wednesday night.....
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