Weak cold front is through after a couple/few isolated t'showers earlier today. Tree damage occurred in western White County from a storm pulsing up with hit or miss rainfall. Some areas saw +1.50" rainfall, others, nothing.
Today was still a muggy day with highs of 83-86, but the humidity will slowly drop for tomorrow.
After lows tonight of 62-66 with a light north wind & mostly clear to partly cloudy skies (with some patchy fog possible), highs tomorrow should still be quite warm at 82-86. However, rather than dew points 69-75, they will drop to 61-66 with a northeast wind at 9-16 mph.
Looks like a scenario of some patchy high cirrus in the morning, followed by those clouds clearing to some flat fair-weather cumulus developing.
Areas of high & mid cloudiness will come through at times Monday night & Tuesday from decaying storm clusters along warm front to our west. Highs Tuesday will run 84-89 with southeast wind 7-13 mph with dew points 57-64 after Tuesday morning lows of 58-64.
Even with warm front just north of the area Tuesday night, it appears any storms will stay over Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri & far northwestern Illinois. Lows will drop to 65-70.
Wednesday looks hot, humid & rather breezy with highs of 88-92 with heat indices 95-101. Southwest winds should run 15-25 mph.
A broken line of storms is possible in the late afternoon-evening. A few severe gusts are possible from the line, not necessarily a lot because the line looks so broken. That is the way it appears right now, but it is subject to change. The best shear & dynamics tend to bypass our area to the northwest & we look to battle capping Wednesday.
Best severe risk will be Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Minnesota & western Illinois Tuesday late afternoon-evening to the night-time hours.
Highs of 78-84 will follow Thursday & Friday with lower humidity, sunshine & lows 54-60 with brief mid-July comfortable period below the normals of 84-86 with lows 62-64.
We will need to watch the Gulf of Mexico for tropical development & then how that development affects our area.
We may have substantial heat wave conditions July 21-28 with that strong, hot upper ridge taking over the area.
In this transition to intense heat, a complex of storms may ride down the warm front in the "Ring of Fire" next Saturday or Saturday night with some severe risk.
The highest 850 mb (5000') temperatures of 2019 (+24C) are forecast as the core of the ridge settle right over our region with +5940 gpm (higher total thickenesses a good measure of higher temperatures).
Core of the severe weather risk will exist well north of the area. At times, the main area of severe weather will set up way north from Montana to Saskatchewan & Manitoba. Areas like northern Ontario & northern Maine could get in on severe risk.
Here, it looks like numerous 93-97 days possible July 21-28 with heat indices 99-112. With corn crop gaining its near tasseling & very active grow stage a month later than normal for much of the area (as well as soybeans), a push in the dew point upward will likely occur during this time. So, any even slightly dry heat will be pushed into muggy territory by the transpiring corn (soybean crop somewhat) crop.
Otherwise, it looks frequently capped & just hot & dry with a few storms from time to time. The outflow boundary of an MCS may sneak in as a trigger from way to the north from time to time. Also, you still have to watch renegade MCSs that penetrate ridge & somehow ride a bit of a thickness or instability gradient into the area. These ridges can flex & contract even while we are still in the 90s. In this process, an MCS or a derecho can get kicked off the beaten path from way, way to the north & make it into the region.
Larger-scale pattern change should occur after July 28 with a round of storms with severe risk & then cooler & wetter weather in early August.
Late August looks quite hot again with 90s.