July 7, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

The heat wave rolls on, followed by brief bit of a break, then a second heat wave.

Posted: Jul 7, 2020 9:37 PM
Updated: Jul 7, 2020 11:26 PM

Highs today reached 88-97.

It was hot all over the region.  Toledo, Ohio hit 98.....Elkhart 97...Angola, Indiana 97...Chicago (O'Hare) 96....Fort Wayne 95....South Bend 94....Lansing, Michigan 95....Detroit, Michigan 96...Akron, Ohio 95...Columbus, Ohio 97....Peoria, Illinois 95....Evansville, Indiana 95....Mt. Vernon, Indiana 96....Decker, Indiana (South of Vincennes) 97....Mentone, Indiana (northeast of Rochester) 95....Roann, Indiana 96....Buffalo, New York 94....

Heat indices reached 94-107.

Dew point of 113 was measured by observer Tim Garbison near Veedersburg.  Why?  2.05" rainfall yesterday.  Surrounded by dry soil, it heated up tremendously, but his sitr was wet from the rain.  So, he still had the heat, but also, his sensor was over wet soil.

Same thing southwest of Covington in Edgar County, Illinois.  The airport there saw a dew point around 80 due to wet soil.  So, there is a bit of a hodge-podge of peak heat indices, but they are tending to be highest over wetter soils.  Also, there are trending highest nearer to actively-growing corn that isn't stressed by the heat.

West Point observer also measured dew points to around 80 after a downpour of 1.45".

Heat Advisories & Excessive Heat Watches are up nearby, along with Special Weather Statement (from NWS), are up for the intensifying heat tomorrow to Thursday.

After hit or miss rainfall today with isolated wind damage south of SIA in Lafayette & possibly southwest of Waynetown (sure looked like it on radar, but no reports or weather observation equipment there with up to 2.6" rainfall in one hour), watch for patchy fog tonight.  It may be dense in areas that received a lot of rainfall today.

I am going to KEEP 25% risk of storms in the forecast for tonight as outflow boundaries & weak disturbance moves into our northwestern counties.  Disturbance is visible on IR & is likely remnant weak MCV from storms from Montana to far northwestern Iowa yesterday.

Scattered storms will pop Wednesday (I upped coverage to 50%) as several remnant outflow boundaries (tail end of weak disturbance) from previous storms will be over the area amidst boiling heat & instability.  There is the risk of isolated microbursts as boiling balls of intense wind come out of the heaviest storms.  These may pulse up so quickly that there would not be enough time for a Severe T'Storm Warning, so be aware.

Highs of 91-97 are likely with heat indices of 97-107 (isolated locations of +110 over wetter soils).

Thursday may have a couple isolated storms in the morning to afternoon, but more widespread storms are possible Thursday night to Friday morning.  An isolated severe storm or two is possible, but the better risk is currently over Missouri to eastern Iowa & northern Illinois as MCV pivots eastward & forms this relatively loosely-organized complex of storms (MCS).

So, any rainfall Friday is trending toward the morning, followed by sinking air in the afternoon with sun/some clouds & 88-93 with a slight drop in the humidity with a northwest wind.

A few storms are possible Saturday with 86-92 & tolerable humidity.

Sunday looks mostly sunny & 85-90, followed by second heat wave.

95-100 for actual air temperatures are possible late next week with heat indices of 99-110 with Friday most likely being the hottest day.

Note the projected temperatures next Thursday 2 p.m. (92-97) as the heat expands northeastward.

Heat indices are projected at 98-106 next Thursday 2 p.m. 

A long-lived MCS(s) or derecho may track from South Dakota to New England on periphery of the worst of the heat late Thursday night-early Friday morning.

Storms are likely next Friday night or Saturday.  They may occur as a line of storms with severe wind gusts ahead of a surface cold front.

This will likely usher in a few days of 80s for a change the weekend after this upcoming weekend.

Another short-duration heat wave is possible in late July, followed by a period of some nice change in early August after some welcome storms.

It does actually look a bit cooler than normal on a few days in the first 7 days of August.

Lafayette
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Some snow Wednesday to Wednesday night.....
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